PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Volkswagen Arena

VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 0–1.

Shots
1716
Shots on target
59
Expected goals
3.041.85
Possession
31%69%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München beat VfL Wolfsburg 1–0. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – Bayern München): shots 17–16, shots on target 5–9, expected goals 3.04–1.85, possession 31%–69%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match ▲ShotsVfL Wolfsburg · Bayern München19.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match19.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against15.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

45%PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · Bayern München● 67.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession45%67.4%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots16 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 17 shots, FC Bayern München 16 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots9 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 5 shots, FC Bayern München 9 shots
  • Expected goals3.04 xG1.85 xGVfL Wolfsburg 3.04 xG, FC Bayern München 1.85 xG
  • Possession31%69%VfL Wolfsburg 31%, FC Bayern München 69%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 6 corners, FC Bayern München 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls5 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 8 fouls, FC Bayern München 5 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsVfL Wolfsburg 1 card, FC Bayern München 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Denis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 37′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 50′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMichael Olise · Bayern München · 56′ · 0.02 xG · goalLennart Karl · Bayern München · 80′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJesper Lindstrøm · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · Bayern München · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 83′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 18′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKonstantinos Koulierakis · VfL Wolfsburg · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · Bayern München · 70′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 7′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 61′ · 0.06 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 64′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChristian Eriksen · VfL Wolfsburg · 38′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 15′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · VfL Wolfsburg · 11′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 43′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 12′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 24′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 54′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 48′ · 0.17 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 63′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 72′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 24′ · 0.23 xG · on targetChristian Eriksen · VfL Wolfsburg · 24′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Souza · VfL Wolfsburg · 7′ · 0.36 xG · on targetDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 38′ · 0.38 xG · on targetPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 28′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 89′ · 0.64 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 36′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 17 shots, 5 on target, 3.13 xG. Bayern München: 16 shots, 9 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Michael Olise · Bayern München · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 3.13 xG · Bayern München 1.91 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
5FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga8–1
FC Bayern München — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga3–2
VfL Wolfsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–3
FC Bayern München — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0
VfL Wolfsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg33 matchesFC Bayern München33 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 3.55 goals/match
2.06 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.06 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲ 2.95 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots33/33▲ 19.2 shots/match
4.03 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲ 8.55 shots/match
45%Possession33/33● 67.4%
4.3 corners/matchCorners33/33● 6.39 corners/match
2.04 cards/matchCards27/261.85 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls33/338.82 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 May 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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