PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 9 May 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayern München
Shots17 shots/match▲16 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Expected goals3.07 xG/match▲1.86 xG/match
Possession31%69%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsVfL Wolfsburg · Bayern München19.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match19.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match10.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

45%▲PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · Bayern München67.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession45%67.4%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
1Bayern München
Bayern München — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga8–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 11 · 2 too close

1.27 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲3.55 goals/match
2.06 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/33▲1.06 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲2.77 xG/match
1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/81.7 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/33▲19.1 shots/match
15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/33▲10.4 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/33▲8.48 shots/match
5.64 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/33▲3.06 shots/match
45%Possessionseason · 33/3367.4%
4.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/336.36 corners/match
7.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 33/33▲3.42 corners/match
2.12 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.85 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/338.85 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/33▲36%
76%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/33▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg30.6
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg25
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg4.6
Bayern München95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg41.7
Bayern München80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg66.7
Bayern München22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg19.4
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg33.3
Bayern München76.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
1.42 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.71 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲19.6 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.8 shots/match
41.8%Possession5/571.6%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/56.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.2 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲2.77 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲19 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.5 shots/match
41.8%Possession10/1069.3%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/106.4 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/108.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

33 / 33 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲3.55 goals/match
2.06 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲1.06 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲2.77 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots33/33▲19.1 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲8.48 shots/match
45%Possession33/3367.4%
4.27 corners/matchCorners33/336.36 corners/match
2.12 cards/matchCards26/261.85 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls33/338.85 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
1.24 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲3.18 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1 goals/match
1.69 xG/matchExpected goals4/5▲2.05 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots17/17▲16.6 shots/match
4.53 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲8 shots/match
48.4%Possession17/1767.3%
5.35 corners/matchCorners17/175 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCards14/132.31 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls17/179.06 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 May 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfL WolfsburgBayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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