UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 6 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap

FC Bayern München

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1–1Full-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Bayern München	Paris Saint Germain
Shots	18 shots/match▲	15 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.41 xG/match▲	1.06 xG/match
Possession	66%	34%
Corners	1 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Bayern München: 18 shots, 6 on target, 1.42 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 1.42 xG · Paris Saint Germain 1.06 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Paris Saint Germain's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's last-five shots average is below their season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season18.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	18.6 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.43 corners/match▲CornersFC Bayern München · Paris Saint Germain5.63 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	Paris Saint Germain	Baseline
Corners	5.43 corners/match	5.63 corners/match	4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.4 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Paris Saint Germain18.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	Paris Saint Germain	Baseline
Shots	18.4 shots/match	18.6 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	11.6 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2FC Bayern München

0Draws

2Paris Saint Germain

28 Apr 2026Paris Saint Germain — Bayern München · UEFA Champions League5–4

28 Apr 2026Paris Saint Germain — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League5–4

4 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain — Bayern München · UEFA Champions League1–2

4 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 4 · 6 too close

3.07 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/162.75 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/161.38 goals/match

2.7 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/161.91 xG/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/161.37 xG/match

18.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/1618.6 shots/match

11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/16▲10.6 shots/match

8.07 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/167.13 shots/match

4.93 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/16▲4.19 shots/match

60.9%Possessionseason · 14/1662.9%

5.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/165.63 corners/match

3.86 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/16▲3.31 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/169.06 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/16▲31%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1694%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München94

Paris Saint Germain96.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München95.7

Paris Saint Germain94.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München59.8

Paris Saint Germain75.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München75

Paris Saint Germain70.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München27.4

Paris Saint Germain10.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München72.6

Paris Saint Germain77.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München72

Paris Saint Germain68.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.6 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

2.63 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.5 xG/match

18.8 shots/match▲Shots5/513 shots/match

7.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.8 shots/match

62.8%Possession5/550.4%

6.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.5 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match

2.55 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.68 xG/match

18.1 shots/matchShots10/1017.8 shots/match

7.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/106.6 shots/match

63.7%Possession10/1060.5%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 16 matches

3.07 goals/match▲Goals scored14/162.75 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed14/161.38 goals/match

2.7 xG/match▲Expected goals14/161.91 xG/match

18.4 shots/matchShots14/1618.6 shots/match

8.07 shots/match▲Shots on target14/167.13 shots/match

60.9%Possession14/1662.9%

5.43 corners/matchCorners14/165.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls14/169.06 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored7/82.38 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed7/81 goals/match

2.68 xG/match▲Expected goals7/81.69 xG/match

20.4 shots/match▲Shots7/818.8 shots/match

7.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/86.75 shots/match

65.7%Possession7/860.8%

5.57 corners/matchCorners7/86.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls7/88.88 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples14 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 6 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4