UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 5 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

DWWDD

1–0Full-time recap

Atlético Madrid

WLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Atlético Madrid
Shots	13 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.56 xG/match▲	0.99 xG/match
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	5 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.61 xG. Atlético Madrid: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.53 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.61 xG · Atlético Madrid 0.53 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.07 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	2.07 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	17.3 shots/match	14.9 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.36 corners/match▲CornersArsenal · Atlético Madrid5.31 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Atlético Madrid	Baseline
Corners	5.36 corners/match	5.31 corners/match	4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Arsenal

2Draws

0Atlético Madrid

29 Apr 2026Atletico Madrid — Arsenal · UEFA Champions League1–1

29 Apr 2026Atlético Madrid — Arsenal · UEFA Champions League1–1

21 Oct 2025Arsenal — Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–0

21 Oct 2025Arsenal — Atlético Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 1 · 4 too close

2.07 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/16▲2.19 goals/match

0.43 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/161.75 goals/match

2.04 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/161.81 xG/match

0.84 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 14/161.7 xG/match

14.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/1614.3 shots/match

11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1613.4 shots/match

6.14 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/165.44 shots/match

2.79 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/165.5 shots/match

52.9%Possessionseason · 14/1649.4%

5.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/165.31 corners/match

3.21 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/164.38 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1610.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

64%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/166%

93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1688%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal72.6

Atlético Madrid48.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal76.7

Atlético Madrid72.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal91.4

Atlético Madrid36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal53.6

Atlético Madrid60.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal42.9

Atlético Madrid48.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal69

Atlético Madrid65.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal65.5

Atlético Madrid61.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match

0.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match

1.36 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.29 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots5/513 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54 shots/match

49.8%Possession5/543.8%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match

2.03 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.77 xG/match

14.8 shots/matchShots10/1014.5 shots/match

5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.9 shots/match

51%Possession10/1048.4%

6 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 16 matches

2.07 goals/matchGoals scored14/16▲2.19 goals/match

0.43 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/161.75 goals/match

2.04 xG/match▲Expected goals14/161.81 xG/match

14.9 shots/matchShots14/1614.3 shots/match

6.14 shots/match▲Shots on target14/165.44 shots/match

52.9%Possession14/1649.4%

5.36 corners/matchCorners14/165.31 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1610.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/81.63 goals/match

0.43 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/82.13 goals/match

2.27 xG/match▲Expected goals7/81.22 xG/match

17.3 shots/match▲Shots7/812 shots/match

6.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/84.25 shots/match

51.9%Possession7/846.9%

6.57 corners/matchCorners7/84.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls7/811.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples14 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 5 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4