PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Emirates Stadium

Arsenal 1–0 Atlético Madrid · UEFA Champions League

Arsenal

DWWDD
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 1–0.

Shots
139
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
1.560.99
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Atlético Madrid 1–0. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Atlético Madrid): shots 13–9, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 1.56–0.99, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match2.07 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match14.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.36 corners/match ●CornersArsenal · Atlético Madrid5.31 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalAtlético MadridBaseline
Corners5.36 corners/match5.31 corners/match4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsArsenal 13 shots, Atlético Madrid 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsArsenal 2 shots, Atlético Madrid 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.56 xG0.99 xGArsenal 1.56 xG, Atlético Madrid 0.99 xG
  • Possession53%47%Arsenal 53%, Atlético Madrid 47%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersArsenal 5 corners, Atlético Madrid 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsArsenal 10 fouls, Atlético Madrid 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ben White · Arsenal · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Calafiori · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Atlético Madrid · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Atlético Madrid · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atlético Madrid · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 81′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 35′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Saliba · Arsenal · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 8′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 76′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGiuliano Simeone · Atlético Madrid · 11′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 44′ · 0.11 xG · on targetGiuliano Simeone · Atlético Madrid · 51′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 66′ · 0.37 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 44′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.61 xG. Atlético Madrid: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.53 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 44′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.61 xG · Atlético Madrid 0.53 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Arsenal
1Draws
0Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid — Arsenal · UEFA Champions League1–1
Arsenal — Atlético Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal14 matchesAtlético Madrid16 matches
2.07 goals/matchGoals scored14/16▲ 2.19 goals/match
0.43 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/161.75 goals/match
2.04 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/161.81 xG/match
14.9 shots/matchShots14/1614.3 shots/match
6.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/165.44 shots/match
52.9% ●Possession14/1649.4%
5.36 corners/match ●Corners14/165.31 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1610.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 5 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalAtlético Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
Head-to-headArsenal — Atlético Madrid
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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