PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 9 May 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeMetropolitano StadiumFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtletico MadridCelta Vigo
Shots21 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals2.04 xG/match▲0.13 xG/match
Possession56%44%
Corners10 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atletico Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five shots average is below their season average.

6.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots6.6 shots/match10.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico Madrid have a visible home split

moderate

Atletico Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Celta Vigo show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsAtletico Madrid · Celta Vigo10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtletico MadridCelta VigoBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match10.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against10.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atletico Madrid
1Draws
0Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo — Atletico Madrid · La Liga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atletico Madrid favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 1 · 4 too close

1.66 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 35/351.4 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 35/351.26 goals/match
1.36 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.1 xG/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/81.52 xG/match
13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 35/3510.2 shots/match
10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 35/3512.3 shots/match
5.14 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 35/354.06 shots/match
3.34 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 35/354.09 shots/match
53.9%Possessionseason · 35/3550.4%
6.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/353.89 corners/match
4.06 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 35/354.63 corners/match
2.16 cards/matchCardsseason · 31/27▲1.89 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3511.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
37%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/3526%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3583%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atletico Madrid82.5
Celta Vigo57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atletico Madrid80.8
Celta Vigo45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atletico Madrid84.2
Celta Vigo63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atletico Madrid57.5
Celta Vigo7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid25
Celta Vigo17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atletico Madrid87.5
Celta Vigo12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atletico Madrid67.5
Celta Vigo26.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.07 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/56.6 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
50.6%Possession5/547.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
11 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
1.36 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.1 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots10/107.5 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/103.9 shots/match
51.3%Possession10/1047.9%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.1 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards6/2—
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

35 / 35 matches
1.66 goals/match▲Goals scored35/351.4 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed35/351.26 goals/match
1.36 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.1 xG/match
13.3 shots/match▲Shots35/3510.2 shots/match
5.14 shots/match▲Shots on target35/354.06 shots/match
53.9%Possession35/3550.4%
6.4 corners/matchCorners35/353.89 corners/match
2.16 cards/matchCards31/271.89 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls35/3511.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

18 / 18 matches
2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.28 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.06 goals/match
1.59 xG/match▲Expected goals4/51.04 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots18/188.94 shots/match
6.39 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.78 shots/match
55.4%Possession18/1848.6%
7.72 corners/matchCorners18/183.22 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards16/132 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 May 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtletico MadridCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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