Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 10 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

WLWWD

1–0Full-time recap

Stade Brestois 29

LLDDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Stade Brestois 29
Shots	23 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.25 xG/match▲	0.16 xG/match
Possession	67%	33%
Corners	13 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 23 shots, 6 on target, 1.24 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 3 shots, 2 on target, 0.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.24 xG · Stade Brestois 29 0.16 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois 29's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's last-five shots average is below their season average.

6.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	6.6 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.2 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Stade Brestois 2910.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Stade Brestois 29	Baseline
Shots	18.2 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	11.4 shots/match
Shots against	7.97 shots/match	14.2 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

69.3%▲PossessionParis Saint Germain · Stade Brestois 2942.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 26.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Stade Brestois 29	Baseline
Possession	69.3%	42.8%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Paris Saint Germain

0Draws

0Stade Brestois 29

25 Oct 2025Stade Brestois 29 — Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 10–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 12 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 0 · 2 too close

2.22 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/321.28 goals/match

0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/321.63 goals/match

2.38 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/70.72 xG/match

0.45 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/71.82 xG/match

18.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3210.6 shots/match

7.97 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3214.2 shots/match

6.91 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/323.41 shots/match

2.81 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 32/324.72 shots/match

69.3%Possessionseason · 32/3242.8%

6.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/323.75 corners/match

3.06 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/325.97 corners/match

1.07 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 27/272 cards/match

9.38 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3212.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

53%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3228%

94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3266%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2

Stade Brestois 2919.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain97.2

Stade Brestois 2923.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain97.2

Stade Brestois 2917.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain80.6

Stade Brestois 2952.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain2.8

Stade Brestois 2951.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain97.2

Stade Brestois 2919.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain73.6

Stade Brestois 2930.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match

2.25 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.54 xG/match

20.2 shots/match▲Shots5/56.6 shots/match

6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match

71%Possession5/543%

9.8 corners/matchCorners5/51.6 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

7.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match

2.38 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.72 xG/match

19.2 shots/match▲Shots10/107.9 shots/match

7.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.2 shots/match

70.8%Possession10/1042.2%

7.3 corners/matchCorners10/102.7 corners/match

1 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match

7.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches

2.22 goals/match▲Goals scored32/321.28 goals/match

0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/321.63 goals/match

2.38 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.72 xG/match

18.2 shots/match▲Shots32/3210.6 shots/match

6.91 shots/match▲Shots on target32/323.41 shots/match

69.3%Possession32/3242.8%

6.56 corners/matchCorners32/323.75 corners/match

1.07 cards/matchCards27/272 cards/match

9.38 fouls/matchFouls32/3212.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

2.41 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.88 goals/match

0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.88 goals/match

2.01 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.72 xG/match

20.1 shots/match▲Shots17/178.35 shots/match

6.94 shots/match▲Shots on target17/172.53 shots/match

69.4%Possession17/1742.5%

7.47 corners/matchCorners17/173.06 corners/match

1.08 cards/matchCards12/142.21 cards/match

9.71 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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