PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Francis-Le Blé

Stade Brestois 1–2 RC Strasbourg · Ligue 1

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RC Strasbourg won 1–2.

Shots
2110
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
3.062.02
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Strasbourg beat Stade Brestois 29 2–1. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois 29 – Strasbourg): shots 21–10, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 3.06–2.02, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Stade Brestois 29, Strasbourg.

2.92 days ▲Rest daysStade Brestois 29 · Strasbourg2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricStade Brestois 29StrasbourgBaseline
Rest days2.92 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match11 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.27 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots10 shotsStade Brestois 21 shots, RC Strasbourg 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsStade Brestois 6 shots, RC Strasbourg 5 shots
  • Expected goals3.06 xG2.02 xGStade Brestois 3.06 xG, RC Strasbourg 2.02 xG
  • Possession48%52%Stade Brestois 48%, RC Strasbourg 52%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersStade Brestois 5 corners, RC Strasbourg 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsStade Brestois 10 fouls, RC Strasbourg 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardStade Brestois 0 cards, RC Strasbourg 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Michel Diaz · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 23′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Amo-Ameyaw · Strasbourg · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Le Guen · Stade Brestois 29 · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 8′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 35′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 17′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 79′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 88′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 22′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 30′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 6′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 41′ · 0.12 xG · on targetHamidou Makalou · Stade Brestois 29 · 82′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 2′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 42′ · 0.21 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 42′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 13′ · 0.29 xG · goalLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 87′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 36′ · 0.33 xG · on targetSebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 20′ · 0.44 xG · goalMichel Diaz · Stade Brestois 29 · 77′ · 0.63 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 9′ · 0.97 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 21 shots, 6 on target, 3.06 xG. Strasbourg: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 13′Valentín Barco · Strasbourg · 9′Sebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 20′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 3.06 xG · Strasbourg 1.86 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Stade Brestois
2Draws
0RC Strasbourg
RC Strasbourg — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–2
RC Strasbourg — Stade Brestois · Ligue 10–0
Stade Brestois — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 13–1
RC Strasbourg — Stade Brestois · Ligue 10–3
Stade Brestois — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · RC Strasbourg in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois33 matchesRC Strasbourg33 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 1.61 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.3 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲ 1.56 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots33/3311.3 shots/match
3.48 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲ 4.58 shots/match
42.9%Possession33/33● 54.2%
3.79 corners/matchCorners33/33● 4.24 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards27/252.16 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls33/3311.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 13 May 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisRC Strasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headStade Brestois — RC Strasbourg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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