PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Wed, 13 May 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Strasbourg
Shots21 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals3.11 xG/match▲1.79 xG/match
Possession48%52%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Michel Diaz · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 23′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Amo-Ameyaw · Strasbourg · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Le Guen · Stade Brestois 29 · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 8′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 35′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAbdoul Ouattara · Strasbourg · 17′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 79′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 88′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 22′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 30′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 6′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 41′ · 0.12 xG · on targetHamidou Makalou · Stade Brestois 29 · 82′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 2′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 42′ · 0.21 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 42′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 13′ · 0.29 xG · goalLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 87′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 36′ · 0.33 xG · on targetSebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 20′ · 0.44 xG · goalMichel Diaz · Stade Brestois 29 · 77′ · 0.63 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 9′ · 0.97 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 21 shots, 6 on target, 3.06 xG. Strasbourg: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 13′Valentín Barco · Strasbourg · 9′Sebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 20′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 3.06 xG · Strasbourg 1.86 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Stade Brestois 29, Strasbourg. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Stade Brestois 29, Strasbourg.

2.92 days▲Rest daysStade Brestois 29 · Strasbourg2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricStade Brestois 29StrasbourgBaseline
Rest days2.92 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match10.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Stade Brestois 29
0Draws
0Strasbourg
Strasbourg — Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 11–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Strasbourg in 9 · 4 too close

1.27 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.61 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/33▲1.3 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.49 xG/match
1.82 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.63 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/3311.3 shots/match
14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/33▲12.3 shots/match
3.48 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/33▲4.58 shots/match
4.73 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/33▲4.45 shots/match
43%Possessionseason · 33/3354.1%
3.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/334.15 corners/match
5.91 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 33/33▲4.58 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 27/252.16 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3311.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/3327%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/33▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2919.4
Strasbourg75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2927.8
Strasbourg59.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2919.4
Strasbourg54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2963.9
Strasbourg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2951.4
Strasbourg44.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2919.4
Strasbourg25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2934
Strasbourg43
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.27 xG/match
8.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
44.6%Possession5/557.8%
2 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.49 xG/match
8.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.5 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match
43.8%Possession10/1059.8%
2.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/2—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

33 / 33 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.61 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲1.3 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.49 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots33/3311.3 shots/match
3.48 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲4.58 shots/match
43%Possession33/3354.1%
3.79 corners/matchCorners33/334.15 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards27/252.16 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls33/3311.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 17 matches
1.69 goals/matchGoals scored16/171.65 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/171.65 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals3/4▲1.86 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1710.9 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target16/174.24 shots/match
43.5%Possession16/1755.6%
4.56 corners/matchCorners16/173.53 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards13/132.54 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1712.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 13 May 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Strasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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