PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 2 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
3–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern München1. FC Heidenheim
Shots23 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals2.21 xG/match▲2.13 xG/match
Possession75%25%
Corners13 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.19 goals/match1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.2 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · 1. FC Heidenheim11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern München1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Shots19.2 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match15.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

67.3%▲PossessionBayern München · 1. FC Heidenheim42.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern München1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Possession67.3%42.3%47.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayern München
0Draws
01. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — Bayern München · Bundesliga0–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 2 · 2 too close

3.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/321.19 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/322.16 goals/match
2.9 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.38 xG/match
1.5 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.29 xG/match
19.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3211.3 shots/match
10.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3215.2 shots/match
8.47 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/323.53 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 32/325.5 shots/match
67.3%Possessionseason · 32/3242.3%
6.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/324.5 corners/match
3.34 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/325.09 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.54 cards/match
8.97 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/329.94 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/323%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3266%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
1. FC Heidenheim16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München95.4
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München80.6
1. FC Heidenheim69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München22.2
1. FC Heidenheim27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 91%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München97.2
1. FC Heidenheim38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München76.4
1. FC Heidenheim25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
2.69 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.59 xG/match
20 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match
7.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
71.6%Possession5/543.6%
7.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
3.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
2.9 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.38 xG/match
19.8 shots/match▲Shots10/109.8 shots/match
7.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
67.5%Possession10/1042.1%
6.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/40.75 cards/match
8.5 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches
3.63 goals/match▲Goals scored32/321.19 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/322.16 goals/match
2.9 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.38 xG/match
19.2 shots/match▲Shots32/3211.3 shots/match
8.47 shots/match▲Shots on target32/323.53 shots/match
67.3%Possession32/3242.3%
6.47 corners/matchCorners32/324.5 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards26/261.54 cards/match
8.97 fouls/matchFouls32/329.94 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches
3.94 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.94 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162.13 goals/match
3.96 xG/match▲Expected goals3/41.2 xG/match
21.7 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.3 shots/match
9 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.13 shots/match
67.5%Possession16/1643.4%
7.81 corners/matchCorners16/164.44 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards13/131.92 cards/match
8.63 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern München1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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