Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap

1. FC Heidenheim

LDDWL

2–0Full-time recap

FC St. Pauli

LLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	FC St. Pauli
Shots	12 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.44 xG/match▲	1.11 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	6 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.13 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01. FC Heidenheim

0Draws

1FC St. Pauli

13 Dec 2025FC St. Pauli — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 3 · 6 too close

1.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/310.84 goals/match

2.13 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.71 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/60.83 xG/match

1.14 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/61.79 xG/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/3110.3 shots/match

14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲12 shots/match

3.48 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/313.42 shots/match

5.45 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/315.26 shots/match

42.8%Possessionseason · 31/3144.6%

4.48 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/314.55 corners/match

4.84 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/315.03 corners/match

1.54 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/251.56 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/319.74 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

3%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲16%

65%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3158%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3

FC St. Pauli25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim11.1

FC St. Pauli2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim9.3

FC St. Pauli46.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim58.3

FC St. Pauli8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim27.8

FC St. Pauli27.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim33.3

FC St. Pauli44.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim22.9

FC St. Pauli21.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

1.47 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.9 xG/match

11 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

46.2%Possession5/544.2%

3.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls5/57.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.8 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.83 xG/match

10.2 shots/match▲Shots10/109.5 shots/match

3.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match

44.7%Possession10/1041.8%

3.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match

1 cards/matchCards5/41.75 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/108.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored31/310.84 goals/match

2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.71 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.83 xG/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots31/3110.3 shots/match

3.48 shots/matchShots on target31/313.42 shots/match

42.8%Possession31/3144.6%

4.48 corners/matchCorners31/314.55 corners/match

1.54 cards/matchCards26/251.56 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls31/319.74 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.69 goals/match

2.19 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.69 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.65 xG/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1610 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on target16/162.5 shots/match

41.1%Possession16/1644.6%

4.56 corners/matchCorners16/163.5 corners/match

1.15 cards/matchCards13/131.46 cards/match

9.44 fouls/matchFouls16/169.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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