PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 1–2.

Shots
258
Shots on target
103
Expected goals
3.041.33
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Köln 2–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – Bayer Leverkusen): shots 25–8, shots on target 10–3, expected goals 3.04–1.33, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.1%Possession1. FC Köln · Bayer Leverkusen● 59.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Possession47.1%59.5%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots8 shots1. FC Köln 25 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots3 shots1. FC Köln 10 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 shots
  • Expected goals3.04 xG1.33 xG1. FC Köln 3.04 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.33 xG
  • Possession45%55%1. FC Köln 45%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 55%
  • Corners2 corners5 corners1. FC Köln 2 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls5 fouls1. FC Köln 11 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 card1. FC Köln 1 card, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer Leverkusen · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRobert Andrich · Bayer Leverkusen · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 87′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNathan Tella · Bayer Leverkusen · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlessio Castro-Montes · 1. FC Köln · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 76′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFelipe Chavez · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 9′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 48′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Chavez · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetFelipe Chavez · 1. FC Köln · 87′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 13′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 66′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 81′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer Leverkusen · 38′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 51′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJarell Quansah · Bayer Leverkusen · 16′ · 0.16 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 52′ · 0.16 xG · goalEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 29′ · 0.18 xG · on targetSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 66′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.23 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 4′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 36′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 77′ · 0.40 xG · goalPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 43′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 25 shots, 10 on target, 2.64 xG. Bayer Leverkusen: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 77′Patrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 43′Patrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 2.64 xG · Bayer Leverkusen 1.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Köln
0Draws
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Köln — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–2
1. FC Köln — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln31 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen31 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲ 2 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲ 1.35 goals/match
1.54 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲ 1.81 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots31/31▲ 14.8 shots/match
4.61 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲ 4.94 shots/match
47.1%Possession31/31● 59.5%
4.55 corners/matchCorners31/31● 5.45 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards27/262.31 cards/match
8.39 fouls/matchFouls31/318.68 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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