PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC Augsburg
Shots31 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.94 xG/match▲0.35 xG/match
Possession71%29%
Corners10 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five shots average is above their season average.

19.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots19.6 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible home split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.7%▲PossessionBayer Leverkusen · FC Augsburg44.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC AugsburgBaseline
Possession59.7%44.5%47.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bayer Leverkusen
0Draws
1FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg — Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · FC Augsburg in 0 · 3 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301.27 goals/match
1.37 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/301.8 goals/match
2.26 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/51.29 xG/match
1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/52.35 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3012.9 shots/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3014.3 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/304.43 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/304.83 shots/match
59.7%Possessionseason · 30/3044.5%
5.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/304.4 corners/match
4.1 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/305.53 corners/match
2.31 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.73 cards/match
8.77 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3017%
87%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3073%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen91.7
FC Augsburg25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen78.7
FC Augsburg47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen73.1
FC Augsburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen19.4
FC Augsburg86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen38.9
FC Augsburg86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen75
FC Augsburg19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen59.7
FC Augsburg48.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
2.26 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.29 xG/match
19.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
59%Possession5/537.8%
7 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
2.26 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.29 xG/match
16.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.4 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match
61%Possession10/1043.3%
6.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301.27 goals/match
1.37 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/301.8 goals/match
2.26 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.29 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots30/3012.9 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target30/304.43 shots/match
59.7%Possession30/3044.5%
5.4 corners/matchCorners30/304.4 corners/match
2.31 cards/matchCards26/262.73 cards/match
8.77 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.13 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.87 goals/match
3.06 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.11 xG/match
17.3 shots/match▲Shots15/1513.1 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.07 shots/match
61.8%Possession15/1543.2%
6.47 corners/matchCorners15/153.67 corners/match
2.23 cards/matchCards13/132.77 cards/match
8.67 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer LeverkusenFC Augsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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