PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Stadion An der Alten Försterei

1. FC Union Berlin 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Wolfsburg won 1–2.

Shots
255
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.790.19
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Wolfsburg beat Union Berlin 2–1. Recorded in this match (Union Berlin – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 25–5, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.79–0.19, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Wolfsburg have a visible away split

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsUnion Berlin · VfL Wolfsburg11.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Fouls12.8 fouls/match11.8 fouls/match10.2 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots5 shots1. FC Union Berlin 25 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 5 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shots1. FC Union Berlin 7 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.79 xG0.19 xG1. FC Union Berlin 1.79 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 0.19 xG
  • Possession54%46%1. FC Union Berlin 54%, VfL Wolfsburg 46%
  • Corners11 corners4 corners1. FC Union Berlin 11 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 13 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 card1. FC Union Berlin 1 card, VfL Wolfsburg 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tom Rothe · Union Berlin · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrás Schäfer · Union Berlin · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAaron Zehnter · VfL Wolfsburg · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 46′ · 0.02 xG · goalIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 50′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAndrás Schäfer · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRani Khedira · Union Berlin · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · VfL Wolfsburg · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDerrick Köhn · Union Berlin · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristopher Trimmel · Union Berlin · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 9′ · 0.04 xG · on targetChristian Eriksen · VfL Wolfsburg · 19′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDiogo Leite · Union Berlin · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Union Berlin · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 11′ · 0.06 xG · goalDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 16′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 42′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDerrick Köhn · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 15′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRani Khedira · Union Berlin · 61′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 88′ · 0.12 xG · on targetOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 69′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 59′ · 0.22 xG · on targetIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 20′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 85′ · 0.41 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Union Berlin: 25 shots, 7 on target, 2.05 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 5 shots, 4 on target, 0.17 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Oliver Burke · Union Berlin · 85′Patrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 11′Dženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 46′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Union Berlin 2.05 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 0.17 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Union Berlin
0Draws
3VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–1
1. FC Union Berlin — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–0
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Union Berlin — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–0
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin30 matchesVfL Wolfsburg30 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 1.37 goals/match
1.73 goals/match ▲Goals allowed30/302.2 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals30/301.29 xG/match
12.4 shots/match ▲Shots30/3011.5 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 4 shots/match
39.3%Possession30/30● 45.7%
5.07 corners/match ●Corners30/304.03 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards26/262.12 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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