PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Stadion An der Alten Försterei

1. FC Union Berlin 2–2 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln drew 2–2.

Shots
138
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
1.151.75
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Union Berlin – 1. FC Köln): shots 13–8, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.15–1.75, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Köln's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots8 shots1. FC Union Berlin 13 shots, 1. FC Köln 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shots1. FC Union Berlin 3 shots, 1. FC Köln 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.15 xG1.75 xG1. FC Union Berlin 1.15 xG, 1. FC Köln 1.75 xG
  • Possession59%41%1. FC Union Berlin 59%, 1. FC Köln 41%
  • Corners2 corners5 corners1. FC Union Berlin 2 corners, 1. FC Köln 5 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls10 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 7 fouls, 1. FC Köln 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cards1. FC Union Berlin 2 cards, 1. FC Köln 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrás Schäfer · Union Berlin · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRani Khedira · Union Berlin · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLivan Burcu · Union Berlin · 89′ · 0.02 xG · goalTom Rothe · Union Berlin · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Rothe · Union Berlin · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAljoscha Kemlein · Union Berlin · 4′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 33′ · 0.09 xG · goalOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 61′ · 0.12 xG · goalTom Rothe · Union Berlin · 73′ · 0.12 xG · goalOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAljoscha Kemlein · Union Berlin · 23′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedCenk Özkaçar · 1. FC Köln · 37′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 84′ · 0.17 xG · on targetAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 73′ · 0.21 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 50′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 41′ · 0.59 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Union Berlin: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.03 xG. 1. FC Köln: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Tom Rothe · Union Berlin · 73′Livan Burcu · Union Berlin · 89′Marius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 33′Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Union Berlin 1.03 xG · 1. FC Köln 1.70 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

31. FC Union Berlin
1Draws
11. FC Köln
1. FC Köln — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–1
1. FC Köln — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–2
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga0–0
1. FC Köln — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 5 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin32 matches1. FC Köln32 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 1.47 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed32/321.72 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 1.54 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots32/32▲ 13.4 shots/match
3.59 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 4.59 shots/match
39.7%Possession32/32● 46.9%
4.94 corners/match ●Corners32/324.56 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards26/271.96 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls32/328.44 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union Berlin1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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