Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 2 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap

Union Berlin

LDLLL

2–2Full-time recap

1. FC Köln

DDWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Union Berlin	1. FC Köln
Shots	13 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.24 xG/match	1.71 xG/match▲
Possession	58%	42%
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.47 goals/match	1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Union Berlin

0Draws

01. FC Köln

20 Dec 20251. FC Köln — Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 7 · 5 too close

1.16 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/32▲1.47 goals/match

1.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/321.72 goals/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲2.08 xG/match

2.13 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.3 xG/match

12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/32▲13.3 shots/match

13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/3213.5 shots/match

3.53 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲4.56 shots/match

4.56 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/324.59 shots/match

39.6%Possessionseason · 32/3247%

4.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/324.5 corners/match

4.63 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/325.59 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/27▲1.96 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/328.34 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/329%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/32▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8

1. FC Köln47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin23.2

1. FC Köln62.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin48.1

1. FC Köln49.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2

1. FC Köln75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin83.3

1. FC Köln22.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin58.3

1. FC Köln38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin50.7

1. FC Köln43.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.36 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match

50.6%Possession5/545.8%

5.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

10 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.8 goals/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.08 xG/match

10.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.5 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match

40.6%Possession10/1046.4%

3.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match

4 cards/matchCards3/53.2 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/108.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches

1.16 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲1.47 goals/match

1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed32/321.72 goals/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.08 xG/match

12.1 shots/matchShots32/32▲13.3 shots/match

3.53 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲4.56 shots/match

39.6%Possession32/3247%

4.88 corners/matchCorners32/324.5 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCards25/271.96 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls32/328.34 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.13 goals/match

1.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match

1.67 xG/matchExpected goals3/4▲1.8 xG/match

12.8 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.9 shots/match

3.94 shots/matchShots on target16/163.88 shots/match

40.4%Possession16/1646.5%

5.13 corners/matchCorners16/164.38 corners/match

2.92 cards/matchCards13/121.83 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFouls16/168.31 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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