PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Millerntor-Stadion

FC St. Pauli 1–1 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1.

Shots
1410
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
2.011.33
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – 1. FC Köln): shots 14–10, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 2.01–1.33, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots10 shotsFC St. Pauli 14 shots, 1. FC Köln 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotFC St. Pauli 6 shots, 1. FC Köln 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.01 xG1.33 xGFC St. Pauli 2.01 xG, 1. FC Köln 1.33 xG
  • Possession48%52%FC St. Pauli 48%, 1. FC Köln 52%
  • Corners8 corners5 cornersFC St. Pauli 8 corners, 1. FC Köln 5 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls2 foulsFC St. Pauli 6 fouls, 1. FC Köln 2 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardFC St. Pauli 4 cards, 1. FC Köln 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlessio Castro-Montes · 1. FC Köln · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTomoya Ando · FC St. Pauli · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCenk Özkaçar · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 56′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 5′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTomoya Ando · FC St. Pauli · 57′ · 0.08 xG · on targetManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 7′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 54′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli · 35′ · 0.20 xG · on targetMathias Rasmussen · FC St. Pauli · 66′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 33′ · 0.27 xG · on targetKarol Mets · FC St. Pauli · 69′ · 0.31 xG · goalAndreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 10′ · 0.42 xG · on targetLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 86′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.81 xG. 1. FC Köln: 10 shots, 1 on target, 1.32 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Karol Mets · FC St. Pauli · 69′Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 1.81 xG · 1. FC Köln 1.32 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC St. Pauli
1Draws
01. FC Köln
1. FC Köln — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli30 matches1. FC Köln30 matches
0.87 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 1.47 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed30/301.7 goals/match
0.87 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲ 1.49 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 13.2 shots/match
3.47 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 4.43 shots/match
44.2%Possession30/30● 47.2%
4.5 corners/matchCorners30/30● 4.63 corners/match
1.58 cards/matchCards26/271.96 cards/match
9.83 fouls/matchFouls30/308.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. Pauli1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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