Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 18:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap

FC St. Pauli

DLLDL

1–1Full-time recap

1. FC Köln

LDDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC St. Pauli	1. FC Köln
Shots	13 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.79 xG/match▲	1.25 xG/match
Possession	49%	51%
Corners	8 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	2 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.47 goals/match	1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC St. Pauli

1Draws

01. FC Köln

6 Dec 20251. FC Köln — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 7 · 3 too close

0.87 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.47 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/301.7 goals/match

0.78 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/5▲2.09 xG/match

1.86 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/5▲1.31 xG/match

10.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲13.2 shots/match

12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3013.7 shots/match

3.47 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲4.47 shots/match

5.27 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲4.73 shots/match

44.3%Possessionseason · 30/3047.2%

4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/304.63 corners/match

5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/305.73 corners/match

1.56 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/271.96 cards/match

9.87 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/308.27 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3010%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli19.4

1. FC Köln47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli2.8

1. FC Köln58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli42.6

1. FC Köln38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli8.3

1. FC Köln75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli27.8

1. FC Köln22.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli41.7

1. FC Köln52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli20.9

1. FC Köln43.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

0.78 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.09 xG/match

9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match

45.2%Possession5/549.6%

3.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

—Cards0/2—

7.8 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

0.78 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.09 xG/match

9.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.5 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.2 shots/match

39.5%Possession10/1046.6%

3.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards5/72.57 cards/match

8.5 fouls/matchFouls10/108 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

0.87 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.47 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed30/301.7 goals/match

0.78 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.09 xG/match

10.2 shots/matchShots30/30▲13.2 shots/match

3.47 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲4.47 shots/match

44.3%Possession30/3047.2%

4.5 corners/matchCorners30/304.63 corners/match

1.56 cards/matchCards25/271.96 cards/match

9.87 fouls/matchFouls30/308.27 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.07 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.73 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.83 xG/match

10.5 shots/matchShots15/15▲12.2 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.87 shots/match

44.6%Possession15/1546.8%

5.67 corners/matchCorners15/154.33 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards12/121.83 cards/match

9.73 fouls/matchFouls15/158.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.21 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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