PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Millerntor-Stadion

FC St. Pauli 0–5 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

0–5Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 0–5.

Shots
620
Shots on target
38
Expected goals
0.493.84
Possession
23%77%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München beat FC St. Pauli 5–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – Bayern München): shots 6–20, shots on target 3–8, expected goals 0.49–3.84, possession 23%–77%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.1%PossessionFC St. Pauli · Bayern München● 67%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession44.1%67%47.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.1 shots/match ▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · Bayern München19.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match19.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match9.93 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots20 shotsFC St. Pauli 6 shots, FC Bayern München 20 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots8 shotsFC St. Pauli 3 shots, FC Bayern München 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.49 xG3.84 xGFC St. Pauli 0.49 xG, FC Bayern München 3.84 xG
  • Possession23%77%FC St. Pauli 23%, FC Bayern München 77%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersFC St. Pauli 3 corners, FC Bayern München 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls7 foulsFC St. Pauli 9 fouls, FC Bayern München 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsFC St. Pauli 1 card, FC Bayern München 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tom Bischof · Bayern München · 34′ · 0.01 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConnor Metcalfe · FC St. Pauli · 80′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTomoya Ando · FC St. Pauli · 30′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 16′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 54′ · 0.06 xG · goalKonrad Laimer · Bayern München · 43′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 47′ · 0.09 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 65′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 78′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 17′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · Bayern München · 43′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.18 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 27′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 53′ · 0.20 xG · goalMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 29′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 18′ · 0.31 xG · on targetRaphaël Guerreiro · Bayern München · 88′ · 0.42 xG · goalNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 65′ · 0.45 xG · goalJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 9′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.50 xG. Bayern München: 20 shots, 8 on target, 3.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Jamal Musiala · Bayern München · 9′Leon Goretzka · Bayern München · 53′Michael Olise · Bayern München · 54′Nicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 65′Raphaël Guerreiro · Bayern München · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 0.50 xG · Bayern München 3.34 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC St. Pauli
0Draws
3FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga3–1
FC Bayern München — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga3–2
FC St. Pauli — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli29 matchesFC Bayern München29 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 3.62 goals/match
1.72 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲ 0.93 goals/match
0.83 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲ 2.98 xG/match
10.1 shots/matchShots29/29▲ 19.1 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲ 8.66 shots/match
44.1%Possession29/29● 67%
4.38 corners/matchCorners29/29● 6.21 corners/match
1.58 cards/matchCards26/261.85 cards/match
9.97 fouls/matchFouls29/299.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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