UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 7 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeSantiago BernabéuFull-time recap

Real Madrid

LWWWW

1–2Full-time recap

FC Bayern München

WWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	FC Bayern München
Shots	20 shots/match	20 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Expected goals	2.2 xG/match	2.92 xG/match▲
Possession	48%	52%
Corners	8 corners/match	11 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 20 shots, 9 on target, 2.02 xG. FC Bayern München: 20 shots, 8 on target, 2.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 2.02 xG · FC Bayern München 2.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.8 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · FC Bayern München19 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	FC Bayern München	Baseline
Shots	17.8 shots/match	19 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	15.4 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.31 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	2.31 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6 corners/match▲CornersReal Madrid · FC Bayern München5.55 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	FC Bayern München	Baseline
Corners	6 corners/match	5.55 corners/match	4.68 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 10 · 3 too close

2.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/11▲3.09 goals/match

1.23 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/11▲1 goals/match

2.22 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/11▲2.83 xG/match

1.61 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/11▲1.28 xG/match

17.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/11▲19 shots/match

15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/11▲11.3 shots/match

7.08 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/11▲8.18 shots/match

6.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/11▲4.73 shots/match

55.3%Possessionseason · 13/1160%

6 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/115.55 corners/match

5.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/11▲3.82 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1110.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1118%

92%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/11▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid84.5

FC Bayern München94

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid86.4

FC Bayern München94.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid41.8

FC Bayern München70.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid82.1

FC Bayern München77.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid36.9

FC Bayern München42.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid77.4

FC Bayern München71.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid72

FC Bayern München75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match

1.99 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲3.21 xG/match

15.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲20.2 shots/match

6.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲8.2 shots/match

51%Possession5/564.6%

5 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.1 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match

1.9 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.91 xG/match

15.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲19.3 shots/match

5.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.5 shots/match

54.3%Possession10/1060.4%

5 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 11 matches

2.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/11▲3.09 goals/match

1.23 goals/matchGoals allowed13/11▲1 goals/match

2.22 xG/matchExpected goals13/11▲2.83 xG/match

17.8 shots/matchShots13/11▲19 shots/match

7.08 shots/matchShots on target13/11▲8.18 shots/match

55.3%Possession13/1160%

6 corners/matchCorners13/115.55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1110.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches

2.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/6▲3 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/61.33 goals/match

2.53 xG/matchExpected goals7/6▲2.67 xG/match

20.4 shots/match▲Shots7/617.5 shots/match

7.29 shots/matchShots on target7/6▲8.5 shots/match

50.6%Possession7/655.8%

6.86 corners/matchCorners7/65.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls7/610.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/120 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples13 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 7 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4