PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid 1–2 FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–2.

Shots
2020
Shots on target
98
Expected goals
2.22.92
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat Real Madrid 2–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – FC Bayern München): shots 20–20, shots on target 9–8, expected goals 2.2–2.92, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsReal Madrid · FC Bayern München19 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match19 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.31 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6 corners/match ●CornersReal Madrid · FC Bayern München5.55 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Corners6 corners/match5.55 corners/match4.68 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots20 shotsReal Madrid 20 shots, FC Bayern München 20 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots8 shotsReal Madrid 9 shots, FC Bayern München 8 shots
  • Expected goals2.2 xG2.92 xGReal Madrid 2.2 xG, FC Bayern München 2.92 xG
  • Possession48%52%Real Madrid 48%, FC Bayern München 52%
  • Corners8 corners11 cornersReal Madrid 8 corners, FC Bayern München 11 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsReal Madrid 12 fouls, FC Bayern München 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · FC Bayern München · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 80′ · 0.02 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 47′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTrent Alexander-Arnold · Real Madrid · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 35′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTrent Alexander-Arnold · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 82′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedÉder Militão · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 7′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 85′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 46′ · 0.07 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 68′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 8′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 29′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · FC Bayern München · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÉder Militão · Real Madrid · 67′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 1′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 18′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · FC Bayern München · 65′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJosip Stanišić · FC Bayern München · 48′ · 0.11 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 66′ · 0.11 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 18′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 61′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 16′ · 0.39 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 28′ · 0.50 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · FC Bayern München · 41′ · 0.59 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 74′ · 0.63 xG · goalDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 9′ · 0.77 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 20 shots, 9 on target, 2.02 xG. FC Bayern München: 20 shots, 8 on target, 2.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 74′Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München · 41′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 46′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 2.02 xG · FC Bayern München 2.95 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Real Madrid
1Draws
0FC Bayern München
Real Madrid — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League2–1
FC Bayern München — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid13 matchesFC Bayern München11 matches
2.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/11▲ 3.09 goals/match
1.23 goals/matchGoals allowed13/11▲ 1 goal/match
2.22 xG/matchExpected goals13/11▲ 2.83 xG/match
17.8 shots/matchShots13/11▲ 19 shots/match
7.08 shots/matchShots on target13/11▲ 8.18 shots/match
55.3%Possession13/11● 60%
6 corners/match ●Corners13/115.55 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1110.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 7 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridFC Bayern München
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
Head-to-headReal Madrid — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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