PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 8 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeSpotify Camp NouFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBarcelonaAtlético Madrid
Shots18 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.1 xG/match▲0.44 xG/match
Possession58%42%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gerard Martín · Barcelona · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFermín López · Barcelona · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLamine Yamal · Barcelona · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarcus Rashford · Barcelona · 2′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarcus Rashford · Barcelona · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atlético Madrid · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoão Cancelo · Barcelona · 10′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMarcus Rashford · Barcelona · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLamine Yamal · Barcelona · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Barcelona · 30′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 45′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJoão Cancelo · Barcelona · 78′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGiuliano Simeone · Atlético Madrid · 11′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLamine Yamal · Barcelona · 38′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 45′ · 0.08 xG · goalAlexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 70′ · 0.09 xG · goalLamine Yamal · Barcelona · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Barcelona · 52′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRonald Araújo · Barcelona · 74′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · Barcelona · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Barcelona · 4′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMarcus Rashford · Barcelona · 50′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 5′ · 0.15 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Barcelona: 18 shots, 7 on target, 1.20 xG. Atlético Madrid: 5 shots, 3 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Julián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 45′Alexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Barcelona 1.20 xG · Atlético Madrid 0.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2.54 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsBarcelona · Atlético Madrid14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBarcelonaAtlético MadridBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against9.82 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.7%▲PossessionBarcelona · Atlético Madrid50.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBarcelonaAtlético MadridBaseline
Possession62.7%50.9%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Barcelona
0Draws
1Atlético Madrid
Atletico Madrid — Barcelona · La Liga1–2
Barcelona — Atletico Madrid · Copa del Rey3–0
Atletico Madrid — Barcelona · Copa del Rey4–0
Barcelona — Atletico Madrid · La Liga3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Barcelona favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 2 · 4 too close

2.73 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/132.54 goals/match
1.73 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/131.85 goals/match
1.91 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/131.85 xG/match
1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 11/131.69 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1314.3 shots/match
9.82 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1313.5 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/135.85 shots/match
4.18 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/135.85 shots/match
62.7%Possessionseason · 11/1350.9%
4.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/135.77 corners/match
3.55 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/134.62 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.64 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1310.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/13▲8%
82%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/13▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Barcelona96.4
Atlético Madrid60.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Barcelona88.2
Atlético Madrid77.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Barcelona66.9
Atlético Madrid32.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Barcelona51.2
Atlético Madrid53.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Barcelona13.1
Atlético Madrid44
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Barcelona58.3
Atlético Madrid75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Barcelona60.1
Atlético Madrid64.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/53.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
2.26 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.86 xG/match
18.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.2 shots/match
9.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55 shots/match
62.2%Possession5/547.2%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.6 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.97 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.83 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.7 shots/match
7.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.9 shots/match
62.6%Possession10/1051.8%
5 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 13 matches
2.73 goals/match▲Goals scored11/132.54 goals/match
1.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/131.85 goals/match
1.91 xG/matchExpected goals11/131.85 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots11/1314.3 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target11/135.85 shots/match
62.7%Possession11/1350.9%
4.91 corners/matchCorners11/135.77 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.64 fouls/matchFouls11/1310.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches
3.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/71.86 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/72.29 goals/match
2.29 xG/match▲Expected goals6/71.25 xG/match
18.2 shots/match▲Shots6/712.4 shots/match
8.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/74.57 shots/match
65.5%Possession6/746.9%
6.5 corners/matchCorners6/75.14 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.33 fouls/matchFouls6/711.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 8 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBarcelonaAtlético Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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