PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025José Alvalade

Sporting 0–1 Arsenal · UEFA Champions League

0–1Historical match

Arsenal

WWWDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 0–1.

Shots
118
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
0.711.33
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Sporting 1–0. Recorded in this match (Sporting – Arsenal): shots 11–8, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 0.71–1.33, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sporting have a visible home split

moderate

Sporting's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match2.45 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots8 shotsSporting 11 shots, Arsenal 8 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsSporting 5 shots, Arsenal 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG1.33 xGSporting 0.71 xG, Arsenal 1.33 xG
  • Possession44%56%Sporting 44%, Arsenal 56%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersSporting 3 corners, Arsenal 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsSporting 11 fouls, Arsenal 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 85′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMaximiliano Araújo · Sporting · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeny Catamo · Sporting · 10′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOusmane Diomande · Sporting · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeny Catamo · Sporting · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 43′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 67′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFrancisco Trincão · Sporting · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeny Catamo · Sporting · 83′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFrancisco Trincão · Sporting · 8′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGeny Catamo · Sporting · 87′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDaniel Bragança · Sporting · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMaximiliano Araújo · Sporting · 6′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting · 87′ · 0.39 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.64 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Sporting: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.87 xG. Arsenal: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.79 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sporting 0.87 xG · Arsenal 0.79 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Sporting
2Draws
1Arsenal
Sporting — Arsenal · UEFA Champions League1–5
Arsenal — Sporting · UEFA Europa League1–1
Sporting — Arsenal · UEFA Europa League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sporting favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Arsenal in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sporting11 matchesArsenal11 matches
1.82 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 2.45 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 0.45 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 2.25 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots11/11▲ 15.4 shots/match
5.45 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲ 7.36 shots/match
50%Possession11/11● 53.6%
4.73 corners/matchCorners11/11● 5.55 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 7 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSportingArsenal
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
Head-to-headSporting — Arsenal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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