Premier League · 2025Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 11:30 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

DWWWW

1–2Full-time recap

Bournemouth

DDDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Bournemouth
Shots	13 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.28 xG/match▲	1.19 xG/match
Possession	51%	49%
Corners	9 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	18 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.5 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.94 corners/match▲CornersArsenal · Bournemouth5.56 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Bournemouth	Baseline
Corners	5.94 corners/match	5.56 corners/match	4.87 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Bournemouth13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Bournemouth	Baseline
Shots	14.6 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	7.78 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Arsenal

0Draws

0Bournemouth

3 Jan 2026Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League2–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 0 · 5 too close

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/321.5 goals/match

0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/321.53 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/31.88 xG/match

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/31.73 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3213.8 shots/match

7.78 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3212.7 shots/match

4.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/324.72 shots/match

2.34 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 32/324.47 shots/match

56.5%Possessionseason · 32/3250.3%

5.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/325.56 corners/match

3.19 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/325.41 corners/match

1.33 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 30/302.4 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3212 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3228%

91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3278%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal82.5

Bournemouth52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal87.5

Bournemouth76.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5

Bournemouth25.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal72.5

Bournemouth87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal17.5

Bournemouth87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal82.5

Bournemouth72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal71.2

Bournemouth81.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/31.88 xG/match

15.4 shots/matchShots5/515.8 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

51.4%Possession5/555.2%

6 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

1 cards/matchCards3/32.67 cards/match

11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/31.88 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShots10/1014.1 shots/match

4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match

52.9%Possession10/1051.6%

6.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match

1.25 cards/matchCards8/82.13 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored32/321.5 goals/match

0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/321.53 goals/match

—Expected goals2/31.88 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots32/3213.8 shots/match

4.88 shots/matchShots on target32/324.72 shots/match

56.5%Possession32/3250.3%

5.94 corners/matchCorners32/325.56 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards30/302.4 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls32/3212 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.56 goals/match

0.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

16.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1613.1 shots/match

4.94 shots/matchShots on target16/164.94 shots/match

57.1%Possession16/1647.9%

6.13 corners/matchCorners16/165.63 corners/match

0.93 cards/matchCards14/142.71 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

27.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121.7 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4