Premier League · 2025Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap

Newcastle

LWWLL

1–2Full-time recap

Bournemouth

DDDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle	Bournemouth
Shots	12 shots/match	12 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.65 xG/match	3.03 xG/match▲
Possession	54%	46%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.52 goals/match	1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.33 corners/match▲CornersNewcastle · Bournemouth5.48 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle	Bournemouth	Baseline
Corners	6.33 corners/match	5.48 corners/match	4.91 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle

2Draws

0Bournemouth

10 Jan 2026Newcastle — Bournemouth · FA Cup2–2

21 Sept 2025Bournemouth — Newcastle · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 3 · 8 too close

1.39 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.52 goals/match

1.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/331.52 goals/match

1.37 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/42.17 xG/match

2.31 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.71 xG/match

13 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/33▲13.7 shots/match

11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 33/3312.7 shots/match

4.61 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/334.67 shots/match

4.24 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/334.42 shots/match

52.9%Possessionseason · 33/3350.2%

6.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/335.48 corners/match

4.88 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/335.3 corners/match

1.86 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/302.4 cards/match

9.94 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3312 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/33▲27%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/3379%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle65

Bournemouth52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle67.5

Bournemouth77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle40.8

Bournemouth25.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle47.5

Bournemouth87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle32.5

Bournemouth85

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5

Bournemouth72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle65

Bournemouth80

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match

1.37 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲2.17 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match

49.8%Possession5/552%

3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards1/2—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match

1.37 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲2.17 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.1 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/104.3 shots/match

50.7%Possession10/1052.9%

6.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match

3.17 cards/matchCards6/72.29 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

33 / 33 matches

1.39 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.52 goals/match

1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed33/331.52 goals/match

1.37 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲2.17 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots33/33▲13.7 shots/match

4.61 shots/matchShots on target33/334.67 shots/match

52.9%Possession33/3350.2%

6.33 corners/matchCorners33/335.48 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCards29/302.4 cards/match

9.94 fouls/matchFouls33/3312 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

1.76 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.59 goals/match

1.65 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.94 goals/match

—Expected goals2/32.37 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shots17/1713 shots/match

5.41 shots/match▲Shots on target17/174.82 shots/match

52.8%Possession17/1747.8%

6.88 corners/matchCorners17/175.47 corners/match

1.73 cards/matchCards15/142.71 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match

Match statistics

What the record shows

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

Both teams have elevated corners records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match