Premier League · 2025Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeSelhurst ParkFull-time recap

Crystal Palace

LWLWD

2–1Full-time recap

Newcastle

LLWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Crystal Palace	Newcastle
Shots	10 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.34 xG/match▲	1.13 xG/match
Possession	42%	58%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Crystal Palace's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

weak

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.13 goals/match	1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Crystal Palace have a visible home split

moderate

Crystal Palace's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.4 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Crystal Palace

0Draws

1Newcastle

4 Jan 2026Newcastle — Crystal Palace · Premier League2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 5 · 7 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/32▲1.41 goals/match

1.16 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/321.47 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/31.27 xG/match

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/32.07 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/32▲13 shots/match

11.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/3211.9 shots/match

3.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/32▲4.66 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/324.28 shots/match

46%Possessionseason · 31/3252.9%

4.16 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/326.47 corners/match

4.77 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/324.94 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCardsseason · 30/29▲1.86 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/329.91 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3225%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/32▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace32.5

Newcastle67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace29.2

Newcastle69.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace62.5

Newcastle41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace62.5

Newcastle47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace70

Newcastle32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace17.5

Newcastle97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace37.5

Newcastle66.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/31.27 xG/match

10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.8 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match

53.6%Possession5/552.2%

4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards4/2—

14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.3 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match

—Expected goals2/31.27 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.2 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match

52.2%Possession10/1051.4%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/106.5 corners/match

3.11 cards/matchCards9/72.86 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 32 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored31/32▲1.41 goals/match

1.16 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/321.47 goals/match

—Expected goals2/31.27 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots31/32▲13 shots/match

3.71 shots/matchShots on target31/32▲4.66 shots/match

46%Possession31/3252.9%

4.16 corners/matchCorners31/326.47 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards30/291.86 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls31/329.91 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored16/161 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.31 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.4 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.5 shots/match

3.94 shots/matchShots on target16/163.75 shots/match

47.4%Possession16/1653%

4.38 corners/matchCorners16/165.75 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards15/142 cards/match

10.7 fouls/matchFouls16/168.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

28 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4