PitchMath
Premier League · 2025City Ground

Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa · Premier League

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa drew 1–1.

Shots
1512
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.20.98
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Aston Villa): shots 15–12, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.2–0.98, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots12 shotsNottingham Forest 15 shots, Aston Villa 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsNottingham Forest 4 shots, Aston Villa 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.2 xG0.98 xGNottingham Forest 1.2 xG, Aston Villa 0.98 xG
  • Possession41%59%Nottingham Forest 41%, Aston Villa 59%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersNottingham Forest 7 corners, Aston Villa 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls9 foulsNottingham Forest 15 fouls, Aston Villa 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsNottingham Forest 2 cards, Aston Villa 2 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Nottingham Forest
0Draws
3Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–1
Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League4–2
Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 5 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest32 matchesAston Villa32 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 1.34 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲ 1.19 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲ 1.2 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots32/3212.7 shots/match
3.97 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 4.38 shots/match
47.3%Possession32/32● 53.8%
5.41 corners/match ●Corners32/325.22 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards29/291.62 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls32/329.75 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2025/26
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required