Premier League · 2025Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LLDDW

1–1Full-time recap

Aston Villa

DLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa
Shots	15 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.2 xG/match▲	0.98 xG/match
Possession	41%	59%
Corners	7 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	9 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.2 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

0Draws

1Aston Villa

3 Jan 2026Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 5 · 9 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/32▲1.34 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/32▲1.19 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.2 xG/match

0.93 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/30.99 xG/match

12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/3212.7 shots/match

12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/3212.8 shots/match

3.97 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲4.38 shots/match

4.16 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/324.22 shots/match

47.3%Possessionseason · 32/3253.8%

5.41 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/325.22 corners/match

4.84 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/324.84 corners/match

1.55 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/291.62 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/329.75 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/32▲28%

56%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/32▲72%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest37.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest38.3

Aston Villa55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest50

Aston Villa45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest82.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest35

Aston Villa17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest67.5

Aston Villa60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest58.8

Aston Villa46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.2 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match

41%Possession5/553.8%

4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.2 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots10/1014.4 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match

42.6%Possession10/1054.4%

5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match

1.43 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲1.34 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲1.19 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.2 xG/match

12.7 shots/matchShots32/3212.7 shots/match

3.97 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲4.38 shots/match

47.3%Possession32/3253.8%

5.41 corners/matchCorners32/325.22 corners/match

1.55 cards/matchCards29/291.62 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls32/329.75 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

0.88 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.25 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.44 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

15.2 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.3 shots/match

3.81 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.06 shots/match

49.3%Possession16/1653.2%

6.38 corners/matchCorners16/164.69 corners/match

1.29 cards/matchCards14/141.86 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match