PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Europa-Park-Stadion

SC Freiburg 2–3 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 2–3.

Shots
1321
Shots on target
49
Expected goals
1.822.8
Possession
30%70%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München beat SC Freiburg 3–2. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – Bayern München): shots 13–21, shots on target 4–9, expected goals 1.82–2.8, possession 30%–70%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · Bayern München19.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match19.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against13.9 shots/match10.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.9%PossessionSC Freiburg · Bayern München● 66.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession47.9%66.7%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season3.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match3.57 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots21 shotsSC Freiburg 13 shots, FC Bayern München 21 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots9 shotsSC Freiburg 4 shots, FC Bayern München 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.82 xG2.8 xGSC Freiburg 1.82 xG, FC Bayern München 2.8 xG
  • Possession30%70%SC Freiburg 30%, FC Bayern München 70%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersSC Freiburg 5 corners, FC Bayern München 8 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsSC Freiburg 9 fouls, FC Bayern München 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsSC Freiburg 1 card, FC Bayern München 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Serge Gnabry · Bayern München · 61′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 77′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 46′ · 0.02 xG · goalMichael Olise · Bayern München · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · Bayern München · 6′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTom Bischof · Bayern München · 81′ · 0.03 xG · goalIgor Matanović · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · Bayern München · 43′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 81′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 84′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 20′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTom Bischof · Bayern München · 12′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJan-Niklas Beste · SC Freiburg · 27′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 28′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.06 xG · goalLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 42′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 52′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJohan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Treu · SC Freiburg · 15′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 43′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 45′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 71′ · 0.18 xG · goalPhilipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg · 40′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · Bayern München · 43′ · 0.45 xG · off target or blockedLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 54′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 57′ · 0.56 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Freiburg: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.79 xG. Bayern München: 21 shots, 9 on target, 2.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Johan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 46′Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 71′Tom Bischof · Bayern München · 81′Lennart Karl · Bayern München · 90′Tom Bischof · Bayern München · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 1.79 xG · Bayern München 2.83 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0SC Freiburg
1Draws
4FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga6–2
SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–2
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–0
SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–2
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg28 matchesFC Bayern München28 matches
1.46 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 3.57 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲ 0.96 goals/match
1.52 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲ 2.95 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots28/28▲ 19.1 shots/match
4.32 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 8.68 shots/match
47.9%Possession28/28● 66.7%
4.46 corners/matchCorners28/28● 6.29 corners/match
1.72 cards/matchCards25/261.85 cards/match
9.21 fouls/matchFouls28/289.18 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC FreiburgFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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