PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
6–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer LeverkusenVfL Wolfsburg
Shots23 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals3.64 xG/match▲1.98 xG/match
Possession68%32%
Corners11 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.07 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsBayer Leverkusen · VfL Wolfsburg11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match15.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.7%▲PossessionBayer Leverkusen · VfL Wolfsburg45.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Possession59.7%45.6%47.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayer Leverkusen
0Draws
0VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 1 · 4 too close

2.07 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/281.36 goals/match
1.39 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/282.25 goals/match
2.62 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31 xG/match
1.61 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.95 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811.3 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2815.6 shots/match
4.79 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.89 shots/match
4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/285.79 shots/match
59.7%Possessionseason · 28/2845.6%
5.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/283.93 corners/match
4.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/287.75 corners/match
2.31 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲2.12 cards/match
9.04 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/284%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2879%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen91.7
VfL Wolfsburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen78.7
VfL Wolfsburg28.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen63.9
VfL Wolfsburg3.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen13.9
VfL Wolfsburg19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen38.9
VfL Wolfsburg70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen75
VfL Wolfsburg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen58.3
VfL Wolfsburg31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match
2.62 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31 xG/match
17.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
58.2%Possession5/541.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match
2.62 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match
60.9%Possession10/1042.5%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
2.07 goals/match▲Goals scored28/281.36 goals/match
1.39 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/282.25 goals/match
2.62 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shots28/2811.3 shots/match
4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.89 shots/match
59.7%Possession28/2845.6%
5.25 corners/matchCorners28/283.93 corners/match
2.31 cards/matchCards26/262.12 cards/match
9.04 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
2.29 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.29 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.43 goals/match
—Expected goals2/2—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots14/149.64 shots/match
5.79 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.21 shots/match
61.1%Possession14/1441.3%
6.21 corners/matchCorners14/142.79 corners/match
2.23 cards/matchCards13/121.92 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer LeverkusenVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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