Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap

1. FC Heidenheim

LLLDD

3–1Full-time recap

Union Berlin

LLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	Union Berlin
Shots	7 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.85 xG/match▲	0.94 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%
Corners	3 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.1 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

11. FC Heidenheim

0Draws

0Union Berlin

29 Nov 2025Union Berlin — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 7 · 6 too close

1.1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/291.14 goals/match

2.21 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.72 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/40.91 xG/match

1.02 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/42.21 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲12 shots/match

15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/29▲13.2 shots/match

3.48 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/293.59 shots/match

5.62 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲4.41 shots/match

42.3%Possessionseason · 29/2938.8%

4.45 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/294.86 corners/match

4.79 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/29▲4.45 corners/match

1.54 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/252.36 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2912.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲21%

62%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲72%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3

Union Berlin2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3

Union Berlin23.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim9.2

Union Berlin53.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim63.9

Union Berlin97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim30.6

Union Berlin83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim27.8

Union Berlin58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim22.9

Union Berlin50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

2.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.91 xG/match

8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲10 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/53.6 shots/match

42.4%Possession5/537.6%

3.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

9 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲2 goals/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.91 xG/match

10.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.5 shots/match

43.1%Possession10/1037.5%

3.9 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match

1 cards/matchCards7/63 cards/match

9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored29/291.14 goals/match

2.21 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲1.72 goals/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.91 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots29/29▲12 shots/match

3.48 shots/matchShots on target29/293.59 shots/match

42.3%Possession29/2938.8%

4.45 corners/matchCorners29/294.86 corners/match

1.54 cards/matchCards26/252.36 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.93 goals/match

2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.87 goals/match

—Expected goals2/30.56 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots15/15▲11.9 shots/match

3.87 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.27 shots/match

40.8%Possession15/1539.3%

4.47 corners/matchCorners15/154.67 corners/match

1.15 cards/matchCards13/121.75 cards/match

9.6 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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