PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Voith-Arena

1. FC Heidenheim 3–1 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim won 3–1.

Shots
710
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.850.99
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim beat Union Berlin 3–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – Union Berlin): shots 7–10, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.85–0.99, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots10 shots1. FC Heidenheim 7 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shots1. FC Heidenheim 3 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.85 xG0.99 xG1. FC Heidenheim 1.85 xG, 1. FC Union Berlin 0.99 xG
  • Possession45%55%1. FC Heidenheim 45%, 1. FC Union Berlin 55%
  • Corners3 corners5 corners1. FC Heidenheim 3 corners, 1. FC Union Berlin 5 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls13 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 7 fouls, 1. FC Union Berlin 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cards1. FC Heidenheim 0 cards, 1. FC Union Berlin 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Andrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Rothe · Union Berlin · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDerrick Köhn · Union Berlin · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBudu Zivzivadze · 1. FC Heidenheim · 79′ · 0.06 xG · goalAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 74′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMarnon Busch · 1. FC Heidenheim · 18′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 81′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 82′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 78′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 68′ · 0.12 xG · on targetPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 42′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDerrick Köhn · Union Berlin · 2′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedBudu Zivzivadze · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · Union Berlin · 75′ · 0.24 xG · goalMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 36′ · 0.71 xG · goalMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 9′ · 0.83 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 7 shots, 3 on target, 2.15 xG. Union Berlin: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 9′Mathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 36′Budu Zivzivadze · 1. FC Heidenheim · 79′Leopold Querfeld · Union Berlin · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.15 xG · Union Berlin 0.94 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

41. FC Heidenheim
1Draws
01. FC Union Berlin
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–2
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga0–3
1. FC Heidenheim — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga2–2
1. FC Heidenheim — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Union Berlin in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim29 matches1. FC Union Berlin29 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored29/291.14 goals/match
2.21 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲ 1.72 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals29/291.24 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots29/29▲ 12 shots/match
3.48 shots/matchShots on target29/293.59 shots/match
42.2% ●Possession29/2938.8%
4.45 corners/matchCorners29/29● 4.86 corners/match
1.54 cards/matchCards26/262.27 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Union Berlin
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Heidenheim — 1. FC Union Berlin
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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