Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap

Union Berlin

WLLWL

1–1Full-time recap

FC St. Pauli

WWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Union Berlin	FC St. Pauli
Shots	17 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.94 xG/match▲	0.33 xG/match
Possession	55%	45%
Corners	7 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.14 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Union Berlin

0Draws

0FC St. Pauli

23 Nov 2025FC St. Pauli — Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 2 · 5 too close

1.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/280.89 goals/match

1.68 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/281.61 goals/match

0.9 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/30.53 xG/match

2.32 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.56 xG/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2810.3 shots/match

13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/28▲11.8 shots/match

3.61 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.39 shots/match

4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/285.32 shots/match

38.2%Possessionseason · 28/2844.9%

4.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/284.43 corners/match

4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/285.04 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.56 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2810 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2818%

71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8

FC St. Pauli19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin24.1

FC St. Pauli2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin53.7

FC St. Pauli52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2

FC St. Pauli8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin83.3

FC St. Pauli27.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin58.3

FC St. Pauli22.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin50

FC St. Pauli16

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.6 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

0.9 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.53 xG/match

9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲10 shots/match

3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match

34.6%Possession5/543.4%

2.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲0.9 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match

0.9 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.53 xG/match

10.3 shots/matchShots10/1010.4 shots/match

3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match

37.6%Possession10/1042.5%

4.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match

2.57 cards/matchCards7/71.14 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/108.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches

1.14 goals/match▲Goals scored28/280.89 goals/match

1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed28/281.61 goals/match

0.9 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.53 xG/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shots28/2810.3 shots/match

3.61 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.39 shots/match

38.2%Possession28/2844.9%

4.86 corners/matchCorners28/284.43 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCards25/251.56 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFouls28/2810 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 15 matches

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored14/150.73 goals/match

1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/151.67 goals/match

—Expected goals1/2—

12.2 shots/match▲Shots14/159.93 shots/match

3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target14/152.53 shots/match

38.3%Possession14/1543.9%

5.07 corners/matchCorners14/153.33 corners/match

2.92 cards/matchCards13/131.46 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1510 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.9 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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