PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Stadion An der Alten Försterei

1. FC Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli drew 1–1.

Shots
169
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
1.950.33
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Union Berlin – FC St. Pauli): shots 16–9, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 1.95–0.33, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots9 shots1. FC Union Berlin 16 shots, FC St. Pauli 9 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shots1. FC Union Berlin 8 shots, FC St. Pauli 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.95 xG0.33 xG1. FC Union Berlin 1.95 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.33 xG
  • Possession55%45%1. FC Union Berlin 55%, FC St. Pauli 45%
  • Corners7 corners2 corners1. FC Union Berlin 7 corners, FC St. Pauli 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 10 fouls, FC St. Pauli 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 card1. FC Union Berlin 0 cards, FC St. Pauli 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leopold Querfeld · Union Berlin · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 25′ · 0.02 xG · goalArkadiusz Pyrka · FC St. Pauli · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Král · Union Berlin · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Rothe · Union Berlin · 86′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAdam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Rothe · Union Berlin · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWoo-Yeong Jeong · Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRani Khedira · Union Berlin · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 4′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDerrick Köhn · Union Berlin · 40′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDerrick Köhn · Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 67′ · 0.07 xG · on targetKarol Mets · FC St. Pauli · 22′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 32′ · 0.16 xG · on targetAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 52′ · 0.21 xG · goalDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 6′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedAndrás Schäfer · Union Berlin · 67′ · 0.42 xG · on targetOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 40′ · 0.49 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Union Berlin: 16 shots, 8 on target, 2.00 xG. FC St. Pauli: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Andrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 52′Mathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 25′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Union Berlin 2.00 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.32 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Union Berlin
0Draws
1FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–1
FC St. Pauli — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–0
1. FC Union Berlin — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin28 matchesFC St. Pauli28 matches
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/280.89 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed28/281.61 goals/match
1.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/280.84 xG/match
12.1 shots/match ▲Shots28/2810.3 shots/match
3.61 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/283.39 shots/match
38.2%Possession28/28● 44.9%
4.86 corners/match ●Corners28/284.43 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards26/261.58 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2810 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — FC St. Pauli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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