PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeEuropa-Park-StadionFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSC Freiburg1. FC Heidenheim
Shots17 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.62 xG/match▲1.57 xG/match
Possession46%54%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0SC Freiburg
0Draws
11. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 1 · 2 too close

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301.1 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/302.2 goals/match
1.39 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/51.22 xG/match
1.05 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/51.14 xG/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3011.3 shots/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3015.1 shots/match
4.27 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/303.43 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/305.57 shots/match
47.9%Possessionseason · 30/3042.7%
4.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/304.43 corners/match
4.17 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/304.8 corners/match
1.72 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/26▲1.54 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3010.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/300%
73%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3063%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg52.8
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg48.2
1. FC Heidenheim9.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg55.6
1. FC Heidenheim9.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg69.4
1. FC Heidenheim63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg22.2
1. FC Heidenheim30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg36.1
1. FC Heidenheim27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg36.1
1. FC Heidenheim22.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
1.39 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.22 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
50%Possession5/544%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
—Cards0/1—
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
1.39 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.22 xG/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match
44.3%Possession10/1045%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/60.83 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches
1.47 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301.1 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/302.2 goals/match
1.39 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.22 xG/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots30/3011.3 shots/match
4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target30/303.43 shots/match
47.9%Possession30/3042.7%
4.47 corners/matchCorners30/304.43 corners/match
1.72 cards/matchCards25/261.54 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls30/3010.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.87 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.8 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/152.07 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.89 xG/match
14.6 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.3 shots/match
5.27 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153 shots/match
51.1%Possession15/1544.7%
5 corners/matchCorners15/154.4 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards12/131.92 cards/match
8.87 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSC Freiburg1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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