PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Allianz Arena

FC Bayern München 4–2 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

4–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 4–2.

Shots
2811
Shots on target
97
Expected goals
4.611.35
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 4–2. Recorded in this match (Bayern München – VfB Stuttgart): shots 28–11, shots on target 9–7, expected goals 4.61–1.35, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.4 shots/match ▲ShotsBayern München · VfB Stuttgart15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots19.4 shots/match15.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against9.97 shots/match12.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.37 corners/match ●CornersBayern München · VfB Stuttgart5.37 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenVfB StuttgartBaseline
Corners6.37 corners/match5.37 corners/match4.6 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match2.07 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots28 shots11 shotsFC Bayern München 28 shots, VfB Stuttgart 11 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots7 shotsFC Bayern München 9 shots, VfB Stuttgart 7 shots
  • Expected goals4.61 xG1.35 xGFC Bayern München 4.61 xG, VfB Stuttgart 1.35 xG
  • Possession66%34%FC Bayern München 66%, VfB Stuttgart 34%
  • Corners11 corners3 cornersFC Bayern München 11 corners, VfB Stuttgart 3 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls3 foulsFC Bayern München 6 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 3 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 43′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBadredine Bouanani · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 73′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKim Min-jae · Bayern München · 10′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart · 88′ · 0.06 xG · goalTiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart · 39′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRamon Hendriks · VfB Stuttgart · 88′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 12′ · 0.15 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 23′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAlphonso Davies · Bayern München · 37′ · 0.15 xG · goalChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 21′ · 0.16 xG · goalMichael Olise · Bayern München · 67′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJosip Stanišić · Bayern München · 80′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 28′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · Bayern München · 49′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.21 xG · on targetBadredine Bouanani · VfB Stuttgart · 88′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 59′ · 0.25 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 70′ · 0.31 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 52′ · 0.35 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 52′ · 0.35 xG · goalNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 33′ · 0.63 xG · goalRaphaël Guerreiro · Bayern München · 31′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayern München: 28 shots, 9 on target, 4.44 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 11 shots, 7 on target, 1.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Raphaël Guerreiro · Bayern München · 31′Nicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 33′Alphonso Davies · Bayern München · 37′Harry Kane · Bayern München · 52′Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 21′Chema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayern München 4.44 xG · VfB Stuttgart 1.21 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4FC Bayern München
0Draws
1VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–5
VfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–3
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga4–0
VfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–1
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München30 matchesVfB Stuttgart30 matches
3.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/302.07 goals/match
0.97 goals/match ▲Goals allowed30/301.4 goals/match
3.03 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/301.75 xG/match
19.4 shots/match ▲Shots30/3015.1 shots/match
8.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target30/306.07 shots/match
67% ●Possession30/3058.2%
6.37 corners/match ●Corners30/305.37 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards26/252 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls30/309.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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