PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
4–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
Shots28 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals4.13 xG/match▲1.14 xG/match
Possession67%33%
Corners11 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match3 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.3 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · VfB Stuttgart15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots19.3 shots/match15 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against9.87 shots/match12.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.33 corners/match▲CornersBayern München · VfB Stuttgart5.37 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenVfB StuttgartBaseline
Corners6.33 corners/match5.37 corners/match4.57 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match2.07 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayern München
0Draws
0VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — Bayern München · Bundesliga0–5

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 0 · 3 too close

3.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/302.07 goals/match
0.97 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/301.4 goals/match
3.22 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/52.03 xG/match
1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/51.51 xG/match
19.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3015 shots/match
9.87 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3012.5 shots/match
8.6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/306 shots/match
2.77 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/304.57 shots/match
67%Possessionseason · 30/3058.2%
6.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/305.37 corners/match
3.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/304.2 corners/match
1.85 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/252 cards/match
9.03 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/309.47 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
37%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3037%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3090%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
VfB Stuttgart86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
VfB Stuttgart89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2
VfB Stuttgart66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München80.6
VfB Stuttgart47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München22.2
VfB Stuttgart37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München97.2
VfB Stuttgart69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München76.4
VfB Stuttgart68
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
3.22 xG/match▲Expected goals5/52.03 xG/match
21.6 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/56.2 shots/match
68.4%Possession5/556.6%
7 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
3.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.5 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
3.22 xG/match▲Expected goals5/52.03 xG/match
20.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.8 shots/match
8.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/106.1 shots/match
65%Possession10/1059.9%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/52.2 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls10/108.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches
3.63 goals/match▲Goals scored30/302.07 goals/match
0.97 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/301.4 goals/match
3.22 xG/match▲Expected goals5/52.03 xG/match
19.3 shots/match▲Shots30/3015 shots/match
8.6 shots/match▲Shots on target30/306 shots/match
67%Possession30/3058.2%
6.33 corners/matchCorners30/305.37 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards26/252 cards/match
9.03 fouls/matchFouls30/309.47 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
4 goals/match▲Goals scored15/152.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.87 goals/match
—Expected goals2/2—
21.6 shots/match▲Shots15/1513.7 shots/match
9.13 shots/match▲Shots on target15/155.87 shots/match
67%Possession15/1558.3%
7.47 corners/matchCorners15/155.47 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards13/131.85 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls15/159.87 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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