UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 15 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap

FC Bayern München

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4–3Full-time recap

Real Madrid

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Bayern München	Real Madrid
Shots	21 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2.14 xG/match	2.25 xG/match▲
Possession	69%	31%
Corners	9 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Bayern München: 21 shots, 9 on target, 2.07 xG. Real Madrid: 12 shots, 5 on target, 2.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 2.07 xG · Real Madrid 2.32 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.2 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Real Madrid17.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	Real Madrid	Baseline
Shots	19.2 shots/match	17.4 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	11.3 shots/match	15.8 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.83 corners/match▲CornersFC Bayern München · Real Madrid5.71 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	Real Madrid	Baseline
Corners	5.83 corners/match	5.71 corners/match	4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season17.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.4 shots/match	17.4 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2FC Bayern München

0Draws

0Real Madrid

7 Apr 2026Real Madrid — Bayern München · UEFA Champions League1–2

7 Apr 2026Real Madrid — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 1 · 3 too close

3.17 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/142.36 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/141.43 goals/match

2.78 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 12/142.22 xG/match

1.37 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 12/141.65 xG/match

19.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1417.4 shots/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1415.8 shots/match

8.25 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/146.93 shots/match

4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/146.57 shots/match

60.8%Possessionseason · 12/1453.6%

5.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/145.71 corners/match

3.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/146.07 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1410.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/14▲29%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1493%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München94

Real Madrid77.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München96.1

Real Madrid87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München68.4

Real Madrid33.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München77.4

Real Madrid84.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München34.5

Real Madrid41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München79.8

Real Madrid73.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München75.9

Real Madrid72.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

3.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.2 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

3.01 xG/match▲Expected goals5/52.22 xG/match

21.6 shots/match▲Shots5/514.4 shots/match

9.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/56.4 shots/match

63.6%Possession5/545.6%

7.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.5 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match

2.67 xG/match▲Expected goals10/102.08 xG/match

18.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1016 shots/match

7.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.8 shots/match

60.6%Possession10/1051.3%

5.8 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 14 matches

3.17 goals/match▲Goals scored12/142.36 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/141.43 goals/match

2.78 xG/match▲Expected goals12/142.22 xG/match

19.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1417.4 shots/match

8.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/146.93 shots/match

60.8%Possession12/1453.6%

5.83 corners/matchCorners12/145.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls12/1410.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches

3.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/72.43 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/71.86 goals/match

2.89 xG/match▲Expected goals6/71.92 xG/match

20.8 shots/match▲Shots6/714.4 shots/match

8 shots/match▲Shots on target6/76.57 shots/match

65.7%Possession6/756.6%

6.33 corners/matchCorners6/74.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls6/710 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples12 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 15 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4