PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 15 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWDWW
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalSporting
Shots15 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target1 shots/match1 shots/match
Expected goals0.64 xG/match▲0.29 xG/match
Possession50%50%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Hidemasa Morita · Sporting · 63′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedMartín Zubimendi · Arsenal · 30′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMaximiliano Araújo · Sporting · 67′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPiero Hincapié · Arsenal · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Trincão · Sporting · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Arsenal · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Arsenal · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Gonçalves · Sporting · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeny Catamo · Sporting · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Arsenal · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGeny Catamo · Sporting · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaximiliano Araújo · Sporting · 48′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoão Simões · Sporting · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Saliba · Arsenal · 80′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 29′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 15 shots, 1 on target, 0.63 xG. Sporting: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.30 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 0.63 xG · Sporting 0.30 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sporting's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Sporting have a visible away split

moderate

Sporting's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7 shots/match12.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.25 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sporting show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Sporting's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Sporting12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalSportingBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Arsenal
0Draws
0Sporting
Sporting — Arsenal · UEFA Champions League0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Sporting in 0 · 3 too close

2.25 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/121.67 goals/match
0.42 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.25 goals/match
2.12 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 12/121.34 xG/match
0.71 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 12/121.12 xG/match
15.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1212.9 shots/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1213.3 shots/match
6.83 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/125.08 shots/match
2.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/124.17 shots/match
53.3%Possessionseason · 12/1250%
5.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.58 corners/match
3.08 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/125.17 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
67%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1225%
92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1275%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal72.6
Sporting56
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal80.8
Sporting53.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal93.3
Sporting65.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal58.3
Sporting36.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal44
Sporting39.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal77.4
Sporting44
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal69.6
Sporting46.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
1.89 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.27 xG/match
15 shots/matchShots5/515 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.6 shots/match
53.8%Possession5/555.2%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
2.13 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.05 xG/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.6 shots/match
7.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.9 shots/match
51.7%Possession10/1048.7%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.67 goals/match
0.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.25 goals/match
2.12 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.34 xG/match
15.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1212.9 shots/match
6.83 shots/match▲Shots on target12/125.08 shots/match
53.3%Possession12/1250%
5.75 corners/matchCorners12/124.58 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
2.39 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.69 xG/match
18 shots/match▲Shots6/67 shots/match
7.5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.33 shots/match
51.7%Possession6/650.5%
6.83 corners/matchCorners6/63.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls6/69.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 15 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalSporting
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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