PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Etihad Stadium

Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal · Premier League

2–1Historical match

Arsenal

WWWWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Manchester City won 2–1.

Shots
159
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
1.411.52
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Manchester City beat Arsenal 2–1. Recorded in this match (Manchester City – Arsenal): shots 15–9, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 1.41–1.52, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.91 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.94 corners/match ●CornersManchester City · Arsenal5.91 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityArsenalBaseline
Corners5.94 corners/match5.91 corners/match4.91 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots9 shotsManchester City 15 shots, Arsenal 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsManchester City 5 shots, Arsenal 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.41 xG1.52 xGManchester City 1.41 xG, Arsenal 1.52 xG
  • Possession59%41%Manchester City 59%, Arsenal 41%
  • Corners8 corners5 cornersManchester City 8 corners, Arsenal 5 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls12 foulsManchester City 5 fouls, Arsenal 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsManchester City 2 cards, Arsenal 2 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Manchester City
3Draws
2Arsenal
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–1
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League5–1
Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League2–2
Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League0–0
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Manchester City favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Arsenal in 5 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Manchester City32 matchesArsenal33 matches
2.03 goals/match ▲Goals scored32/331.91 goals/match
0.91 goals/matchGoals allowed32/33▲ 0.79 goals/match
1.72 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲ 2.13 xG/match
14.9 shots/matchShots32/3314.4 shots/match
5.28 shots/match ▲Shots on target32/334.82 shots/match
60.1% ●Possession32/3356.1%
5.94 corners/match ●Corners32/335.91 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards29/301.33 cards/match
9.91 fouls/matchFouls32/3310.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples32 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsManchester CityArsenal
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2025/26
Head-to-headManchester City — Arsenal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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