Premier League · 2025Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap

Manchester City

WWDDW

2–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Arsenal
Shots	15 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.41 xG/match	1.52 xG/match▲
Possession	59%	41%
Corners	8 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.91 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.94 corners/match▲CornersManchester City · Arsenal5.91 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Arsenal	Baseline
Corners	5.94 corners/match	5.91 corners/match	4.91 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Manchester City

1Draws

0Arsenal

21 Sept 2025Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 6 · 6 too close

2.03 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/331.91 goals/match

0.91 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/33▲0.79 goals/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/32.13 xG/match

1.07 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.22 xG/match

14.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/3314.4 shots/match

9.81 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/33▲8 shots/match

5.28 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/334.82 shots/match

3.41 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/33▲2.42 shots/match

60.1%Possessionseason · 32/3356.1%

5.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/335.91 corners/match

3.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/33▲3.33 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/30▲1.33 cards/match

9.91 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3310.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

41%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/33▲45%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3391%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City92.5

Arsenal87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5

Arsenal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City57.5

Arsenal72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City30

Arsenal20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City82.5

Arsenal77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City70

Arsenal71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲2.13 xG/match

18.4 shots/match▲Shots5/513.2 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match

66.4%Possession5/547.6%

8.8 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored10/102.1 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/100.9 goals/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲2.13 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.3 shots/match

5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.6 shots/match

62%Possession10/1051.4%

6.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match

2.29 cards/matchCards7/71.14 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 33 matches

2.03 goals/match▲Goals scored32/331.91 goals/match

0.91 goals/matchGoals allowed32/33▲0.79 goals/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲2.13 xG/match

14.9 shots/matchShots32/3314.4 shots/match

5.28 shots/match▲Shots on target32/334.82 shots/match

60.1%Possession32/3356.1%

5.94 corners/matchCorners32/335.91 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCards29/301.33 cards/match

9.91 fouls/matchFouls32/3310.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 17 matches

2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored16/171.59 goals/match

0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/170.88 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

16 shots/match▲Shots16/1712.6 shots/match

6.19 shots/match▲Shots on target16/174.71 shots/match

59.8%Possession16/1755.1%

6.69 corners/matchCorners16/175.71 corners/match

1.47 cards/matchCards15/161.69 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1710.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

Both teams have elevated corners records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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