PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Villa Park

Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland · Premier League

4–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 4–3.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
77
Expected goals
2.541.76
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat Sunderland 4–3. Recorded in this match (Aston Villa – Sunderland): shots 15–10, shots on target 7–7, expected goals 2.54–1.76, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sunderland's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.09 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.6% ●PossessionAston Villa · Sunderland44.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaSunderlandBaseline
Possession53.6%44.1%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shotsAston Villa 15 shots, Sunderland 10 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots7 shotsAston Villa 7 shots, Sunderland 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.54 xG1.76 xGAston Villa 2.54 xG, Sunderland 1.76 xG
  • Possession50%50%Aston Villa 50%, Sunderland 50%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersAston Villa 4 corners, Sunderland 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls11 foulsAston Villa 11 fouls, Sunderland 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsAston Villa 0 cards, Sunderland 2 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Aston Villa
1Draws
0Sunderland
Sunderland — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Aston Villa favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Sunderland in 1 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Aston Villa33 matchesSunderland33 matches
1.42 goals/match ▲Goals scored33/331.09 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed33/331.21 goals/match
1.54 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.74 xG/match
12.8 shots/match ▲Shots33/339.97 shots/match
4.45 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/333.36 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession33/3344.1%
5.18 corners/match ●Corners33/333.58 corners/match
1.62 cards/matchCards29/292.07 cards/match
9.79 fouls/matchFouls33/3310.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAston VillaSunderland
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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