Premier League · 2025Fri, 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeStadium of LightFull-time recap

Sunderland

WLWWL

0–5Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sunderland	Nottingham Forest
Shots	14 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.67 xG/match	1.3 xG/match▲
Possession	61%	39%
Corners	3 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	15 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.21 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.2 shots/match	12.5 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Sunderland

0Draws

0Nottingham Forest

27 Sept 2025Nottingham Forest — Sunderland · Premier League0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sunderland favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 8 · 3 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/34▲1.21 goals/match

1.32 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 34/341.32 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/51.14 xG/match

1.52 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/5▲0.76 xG/match

10.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/34▲12.5 shots/match

14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/34▲12.4 shots/match

3.38 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/34▲4 shots/match

4.53 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/34▲4.12 shots/match

44.6%Possessionseason · 34/3447.1%

3.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/345.38 corners/match

5.21 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/34▲4.76 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/29▲1.55 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3410.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3426%

65%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3459%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sunderland22.5

Nottingham Forest37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sunderland12.5

Nottingham Forest40.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sunderland29.2

Nottingham Forest54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sunderland17.5

Nottingham Forest82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sunderland57.5

Nottingham Forest38.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sunderland7.5

Nottingham Forest67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sunderland20

Nottingham Forest58.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.14 xG/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match

50.4%Possession5/544%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.14 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match

46.7%Possession10/1045%

3.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches

1.06 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲1.21 goals/match

1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed34/341.32 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.14 xG/match

10.1 shots/matchShots34/34▲12.5 shots/match

3.38 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲4 shots/match

44.6%Possession34/3447.1%

3.56 corners/matchCorners34/345.38 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards29/291.55 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFouls34/3410.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

1.35 goals/matchGoals scored17/171.35 goals/match

1.12 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.41 goals/match

1.14 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

11.4 shots/match▲Shots17/1710.2 shots/match

3.47 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲4.24 shots/match

45.9%Possession17/1744.9%

3.65 corners/matchCorners17/174.53 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards14/151.8 cards/match

9.94 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.25 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples34 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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