PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Craven Cottage

Fulham 1–0 Aston Villa · Premier League

Fulham

LDWLD
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fulham won 1–0.

Shots
119
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
0.920.69
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fulham beat Aston Villa 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fulham – Aston Villa): shots 11–9, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 0.92–0.69, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots9 shotsFulham 11 shots, Aston Villa 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotFulham 5 shots, Aston Villa 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.92 xG0.69 xGFulham 0.92 xG, Aston Villa 0.69 xG
  • Possession41%59%Fulham 41%, Aston Villa 59%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersFulham 2 corners, Aston Villa 5 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsFulham 13 fouls, Aston Villa 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardFulham 1 card, Aston Villa 1 card

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fulham
0Draws
5Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Fulham · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Fulham · Premier League1–0
Fulham — Aston Villa · Premier League1–3
Fulham — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2
Aston Villa — Fulham · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fulham favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fulham34 matchesAston Villa34 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲ 1.38 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲ 1.24 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 1.37 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots34/3412.7 shots/match
3.68 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲ 4.35 shots/match
51.4%Possession34/34● 53.8%
4.71 corners/matchCorners34/34● 5.18 corners/match
2.07 cards/matchCards30/291.62 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls34/349.82 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFulhamAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2025/26
Head-to-headFulham — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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