Premier League · 2025Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 11:30 UTCFull timeCraven CottageFull-time recap

Fulham

LDWLD

1–0Full-time recap

Aston Villa

LLWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fulham	Aston Villa
Shots	11 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	0.92 xG/match▲	0.69 xG/match
Possession	41%	59%
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.29 goals/match	1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Fulham

0Draws

1Aston Villa

28 Sept 2025Aston Villa — Fulham · Premier League3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 7 · 4 too close

1.29 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/34▲1.38 goals/match

1.35 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 34/34▲1.24 goals/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/5▲1.37 xG/match

1.07 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/51.13 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/3412.7 shots/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 34/3412.6 shots/match

3.68 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/34▲4.35 shots/match

3.79 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/344.32 shots/match

51.4%Possessionseason · 34/3453.8%

4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/345.18 corners/match

5.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/34▲4.76 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCardsseason · 30/29▲1.62 cards/match

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/349.82 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/34▲26%

74%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham57.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham38.3

Aston Villa55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham64.2

Aston Villa44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham37.5

Aston Villa27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham60

Aston Villa15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham40

Aston Villa57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham41.9

Aston Villa46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.37 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots5/513.2 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match

50.4%Possession5/554.8%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/57.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.37 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.7 shots/match

3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4 shots/match

51.2%Possession10/1054.2%

4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards6/52 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches

1.29 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲1.38 goals/match

1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲1.24 goals/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.37 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots34/3412.7 shots/match

3.68 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲4.35 shots/match

51.4%Possession34/3453.8%

4.71 corners/matchCorners34/345.18 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards30/291.62 cards/match

10.7 fouls/matchFouls34/349.82 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

1.65 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.18 goals/match

1.12 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.41 goals/match

—Expected goals2/30.88 xG/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.2 shots/match

3.94 shots/matchShots on target17/173.88 shots/match

52.8%Possession17/1753.5%

5.12 corners/matchCorners17/174.71 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards16/141.86 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples34 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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