UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 28 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

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5–4Full-time recap

FC Bayern München

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	FC Bayern München
Shots	12 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.9 xG/match	3.06 xG/match▲
Possession	43%	57%
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.94 xG. FC Bayern München: 10 shots, 8 on target, 3.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.94 xG · FC Bayern München 3.08 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Paris Saint Germain's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season18.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.8 shots/match	18.8 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.47 corners/match▲CornersParis Saint Germain · FC Bayern München5.77 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	FC Bayern München	Baseline
Corners	5.47 corners/match	5.77 corners/match	4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.8 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · FC Bayern München18.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	FC Bayern München	Baseline
Shots	18.8 shots/match	18.5 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	10.1 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Paris Saint Germain

0Draws

2FC Bayern München

4 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain — Bayern München · UEFA Champions League1–2

4 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 4 · 7 too close

2.87 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/13▲3.23 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/131.46 goals/match

1.97 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 15/13▲2.8 xG/match

1.36 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 15/131.41 xG/match

18.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1318.5 shots/match

10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1311.4 shots/match

7.13 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/13▲8.23 shots/match

4.07 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/134.77 shots/match

64.8%Possessionseason · 15/1360.5%

5.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/135.77 corners/match

3.47 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/133.54 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.87 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1310.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1315%

93%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/13▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain98.8

FC Bayern München94

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain94.4

FC Bayern München95.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain77.7

FC Bayern München60.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain60.7

FC Bayern München75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain8.3

FC Bayern München25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain67.9

FC Bayern München79.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain65.5

FC Bayern München73.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

3.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲4 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲3.26 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲20.2 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲9.2 shots/match

55.2%Possession5/563.4%

2.4 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match

1.78 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.56 xG/match

18.1 shots/matchShots10/1017.2 shots/match

6.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.4 shots/match

64.3%Possession10/1060%

4.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 13 matches

2.87 goals/matchGoals scored15/13▲3.23 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed15/131.46 goals/match

1.97 xG/matchExpected goals15/13▲2.8 xG/match

18.8 shots/matchShots15/1318.5 shots/match

7.13 shots/matchShots on target15/13▲8.23 shots/match

64.8%Possession15/1360.5%

5.47 corners/matchCorners15/135.77 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.87 fouls/matchFouls15/1310.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 7 matches

3.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/73.14 goals/match

1.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/71.86 goals/match

2.14 xG/matchExpected goals8/7▲2.72 xG/match

18.4 shots/match▲Shots8/716.4 shots/match

7.5 shots/matchShots on target8/7▲8.43 shots/match

65%Possession8/756%

5 corners/matchCorners8/75.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.25 fouls/matchFouls8/79.71 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples15 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 28 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4