PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Cívitas Metropolitano

Atlético Madrid 1–1 Arsenal · UEFA Champions League

1–1Historical match

Arsenal

WDWWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atlético Madrid and Arsenal drew 1–1.

Shots
1811
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
2.211.51
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Madrid and Arsenal drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Atlético Madrid – Arsenal): shots 18–11, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 2.21–1.51, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match2.15 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match15 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.53 corners/match ●CornersAtlético Madrid · Arsenal5.38 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtlético MadridArsenalBaseline
Corners5.53 corners/match5.38 corners/match4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots11 shotsAtlético Madrid 18 shots, Arsenal 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsAtlético Madrid 4 shots, Arsenal 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.21 xG1.51 xGAtlético Madrid 2.21 xG, Arsenal 1.51 xG
  • Possession52%48%Atlético Madrid 52%, Arsenal 48%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerAtlético Madrid 6 corners, Arsenal 1 corner
  • Fouls7 fouls11 foulsAtlético Madrid 7 fouls, Arsenal 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Noni Madueke · Arsenal · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atlético Madrid · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atlético Madrid · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNahuel Molina · Atlético Madrid · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 1′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJohnny Cardoso · Atlético Madrid · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDávid Hancko · Atlético Madrid · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 14′ · 0.07 xG · on targetCristhian Mosquera · Arsenal · 87′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPiero Hincapié · Arsenal · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 63′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 15′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atlético Madrid · 53′ · 0.25 xG · on targetAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 53′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atlético Madrid · 74′ · 0.30 xG · on targetViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 44′ · 0.82 xG · goalJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 56′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atlético Madrid: 18 shots, 4 on target, 2.31 xG. Arsenal: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Julián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 56′Viktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 44′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atlético Madrid 2.31 xG · Arsenal 1.52 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Atlético Madrid
0Draws
1Arsenal
Arsenal — Atlético Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Madrid favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Arsenal in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Madrid15 matchesArsenal13 matches
2.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/132.15 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed15/13▲ 0.46 goals/match
1.86 xG/matchExpected goals15/13▲ 2.07 xG/match
14.6 shots/matchShots15/1315 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on target15/13▲ 6.46 shots/match
49.5%Possession15/13● 52.9%
5.53 corners/match ●Corners15/135.38 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1310.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 29 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MadridArsenal
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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