UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 29 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeCívitas MetropolitanoFull-time recap

Atlético Madrid

WWLWL

1–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WDWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atlético Madrid	Arsenal
Shots	18 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.21 xG/match▲	1.51 xG/match
Possession	52%	48%
Corners	6 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atlético Madrid: 18 shots, 4 on target, 2.31 xG. Arsenal: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atlético Madrid 2.31 xG · Arsenal 1.52 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.15 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	2.15 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.4 shots/match	15 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.53 corners/match▲CornersAtlético Madrid · Arsenal5.38 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Atlético Madrid	Arsenal	Baseline
Corners	5.53 corners/match	5.38 corners/match	4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atlético Madrid

0Draws

2Arsenal

21 Oct 2025Arsenal — Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–0

21 Oct 2025Arsenal — Atlético Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atlético Madrid favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 8 · 5 too close

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/132.15 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/13▲0.46 goals/match

1.86 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 15/13▲2.07 xG/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 15/13▲0.83 xG/match

14.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1315 shots/match

13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/13▲11.2 shots/match

5.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/13▲6.46 shots/match

5.73 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/13▲2.85 shots/match

49.5%Possessionseason · 15/1352.9%

5.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/135.38 corners/match

4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/13▲3.31 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1310.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/13▲62%

93%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1392%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlético Madrid48.8

Arsenal72.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlético Madrid76.4

Arsenal76.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlético Madrid32.6

Arsenal91

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlético Madrid70.2

Arsenal53.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid44

Arsenal46.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid75

Arsenal67.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlético Madrid64.9

Arsenal66.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.38 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/512.2 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match

46%Possession5/550.2%

4 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match

1.9 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.05 xG/match

15.1 shots/matchShots10/1014.9 shots/match

5.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.5 shots/match

48.4%Possession10/1051.4%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 13 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored15/132.15 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed15/13▲0.46 goals/match

1.86 xG/matchExpected goals15/13▲2.07 xG/match

14.6 shots/matchShots15/1315 shots/match

5.67 shots/matchShots on target15/13▲6.46 shots/match

49.5%Possession15/1352.9%

5.53 corners/matchCorners15/135.38 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1310.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 7 matches

2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/72 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/7▲0.43 goals/match

2.4 xG/match▲Expected goals8/71.81 xG/match

16.5 shots/match▲Shots8/712.4 shots/match

6.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/75.57 shots/match

51.9%Possession8/754%

5.88 corners/matchCorners8/74.14 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls8/710.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples15 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 29 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4