Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

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3–4Full-time recap

Bayern München

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	Bayern München
Shots	18 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	2.29 xG/match▲	1.97 xG/match
Possession	30%	70%
Corners	2 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsFSV Mainz 05 · Bayern München19.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	Bayern München	Baseline
Shots	11.5 shots/match	19.1 shots/match	12.8 shots/match
Shots against	14.2 shots/match	10.1 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.26 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.26 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.5%▲PossessionFSV Mainz 05 · Bayern München67.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	Bayern München	Baseline
Possession	43.5%	67.1%	47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FSV Mainz 05

1Draws

0Bayern München

14 Dec 2025Bayern München — FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 11 · 2 too close

1.26 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲3.65 goals/match

1.58 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.03 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲3.01 xG/match

1.08 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/61.4 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/31▲19.1 shots/match

14.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲10.1 shots/match

3.94 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/31▲8.52 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/31▲2.94 shots/match

43.5%Possessionseason · 31/3167.1%

4.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/316.26 corners/match

4.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/31▲3.29 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/26▲1.85 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/319.06 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲35%

68%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0513.9

Bayern München97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0529.6

Bayern München97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0540.8

Bayern München97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0563.9

Bayern München75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0572.2

Bayern München22.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0558.3

Bayern München97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0543

Bayern München76.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲4 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.59 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲3.35 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲21.6 shots/match

5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.8 shots/match

42.6%Possession5/571.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.4 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲3.01 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.6 shots/match

4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.8 shots/match

40.9%Possession10/1066.5%

4.2 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/51.6 cards/match

9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/108.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.26 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲3.65 goals/match

1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.03 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲3.01 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots31/31▲19.1 shots/match

3.94 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲8.52 shots/match

43.5%Possession31/3167.1%

4.94 corners/matchCorners31/316.26 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCards25/261.85 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls31/319.06 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲3.31 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.06 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals3/4▲2.1 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots16/16▲16.7 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲7.94 shots/match

45.8%Possession16/1667.2%

6 corners/matchCorners16/165.13 corners/match

2.08 cards/matchCards13/132.31 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls16/169.31 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.92 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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