Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap

VfL Wolfsburg

DLLLD

0–1Full-time recap

Werder Bremen

LLWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfL Wolfsburg	Werder Bremen
Shots	11 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.76 xG/match▲	0.37 xG/match
Possession	57%	43%
Corners	8 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	6 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.11 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible away split

moderate

Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	13.4 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0VfL Wolfsburg

0Draws

1Werder Bremen

7 Nov 2025Werder Bremen — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 7 · 4 too close

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.11 goals/match

2.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.74 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲13.4 shots/match

15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲13.3 shots/match

3.85 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.11 shots/match

5.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲5.07 shots/match

46.1%Possessionseason · 27/2752.1%

4 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.59 corners/match

7.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.78 corners/match

2.12 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.54 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2710 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

4%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲22%

78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2759%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg36.1

Werder Bremen58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg28.7

Werder Bremen36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg6.5

Werder Bremen35.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg19.4

Werder Bremen41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg72.2

Werder Bremen61.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg8.3

Werder Bremen41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg31.9

Werder Bremen43.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match

45.4%Possession5/558.2%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match

14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.1 shots/match

3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match

46.3%Possession10/1057%

4.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match

2.56 cards/matchCards9/92.11 cards/match

13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.11 goals/match

2.11 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲1.74 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.3 shots/matchShots27/27▲13.4 shots/match

3.85 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.11 shots/match

46.1%Possession27/2752.1%

4 corners/matchCorners27/274.59 corners/match

2.12 cards/matchCards26/262.54 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFouls27/2710 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.14 goals/match

2.07 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.71 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1411.2 shots/match

4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.86 shots/match

49.9%Possession14/1451.4%

5.07 corners/matchCorners14/144.43 corners/match

2.29 cards/matchCards14/142.43 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4