Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap

Bayern München

WWWWD

4–0Full-time recap

Union Berlin

LWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bayern München	Union Berlin
Shots	31 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	5.53 xG/match▲	0.21 xG/match
Possession	74%	26%
Corners	12 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.15 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

66.6%▲PossessionBayern München · Union Berlin37.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 29.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Bayern München	Union Berlin	Baseline
Possession	66.6%	37.6%	47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · Union Berlin11.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Bayern München	Union Berlin	Baseline
Shots	19 shots/match	11.9 shots/match	12.7 shots/match
Shots against	10 shots/match	13.6 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayern München

1Draws

0Union Berlin

3 Dec 2025Union Berlin — Bayern München · DFB Pokal2–3

8 Nov 2025Union Berlin — Bayern München · Bundesliga2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 0 · 4 too close

3.59 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.15 goals/match

0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.7 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

19 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2711.9 shots/match

10 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2713.6 shots/match

8.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/273.44 shots/match

2.63 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.52 shots/match

66.6%Possessionseason · 27/2737.6%

6.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.78 corners/match

3.3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/274.59 corners/match

1.85 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/252.36 cards/match

9.11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

37%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2722%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2770%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2

Union Berlin2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2

Union Berlin24.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2

Union Berlin50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München86.1

Union Berlin97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München22.2

Union Berlin83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München97.2

Union Berlin58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München76.4

Union Berlin50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

19.6 shots/match▲Shots5/57.4 shots/match

8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match

63.4%Possession5/530.6%

6 corners/matchCorners5/52 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/34 cards/match

8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

3.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

18.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.6 shots/match

8.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match

63.7%Possession10/1036.4%

6.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards9/82.38 cards/match

9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

3.59 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.15 goals/match

0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.7 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

19 shots/match▲Shots27/2711.9 shots/match

8.67 shots/match▲Shots on target27/273.44 shots/match

66.6%Possession27/2737.6%

6.22 corners/matchCorners27/274.78 corners/match

1.85 cards/matchCards26/252.36 cards/match

9.11 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

4 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.93 goals/match

0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.79 goals/match

—Expected goals1/2—

21.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1412 shots/match

9.14 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.29 shots/match

67%Possession14/1438.1%

7.21 corners/matchCorners14/144.64 corners/match

1.38 cards/matchCards13/121.75 cards/match

9 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.92 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4