UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 18 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap

FC Bayern München

LWWWW

4–1Full-time recap

Atalanta

LLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Bayern München	Atalanta
Shots	25 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match	8 shots/match
Expected goals	3.61 xG/match▲	2.3 xG/match
Possession	70%	30%
Corners	6 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Bayern München: 25 shots, 8 on target, 3.59 xG. Atalanta: 14 shots, 8 on target, 2.30 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 3.59 xG · Atalanta 2.30 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.9 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Atalanta13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	Atalanta	Baseline
Shots	18.9 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	10.4 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Atalanta have a visible away split

moderate

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.7 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.8%▲PossessionFC Bayern München · Atalanta48.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	Atalanta	Baseline
Possession	60.8%	48.5%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2FC Bayern München

0Draws

0Atalanta

10 Mar 2026Atalanta — Bayern München · UEFA Champions League1–6

10 Mar 2026Atalanta — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League1–6

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 1 · 3 too close

3.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/121.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/121.92 goals/match

2.83 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/121.82 xG/match

1.19 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/121.85 xG/match

18.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1213.8 shots/match

10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1213.1 shots/match

8.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/124.42 shots/match

4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/125.42 shots/match

60.8%Possessionseason · 10/1248.5%

5 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/124 corners/match

3.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/123.75 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1210.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/12▲25%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1267%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München94

Atalanta39.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München94.9

Atalanta44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München78.9

Atalanta39.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München75

Atalanta53.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München39.3

Atalanta22.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München61.9

Atalanta25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München71.7

Atalanta34.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

3.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match

3.06 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.58 xG/match

20.8 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match

8.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55 shots/match

66.6%Possession5/545%

5.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

3.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match

2.83 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.83 xG/match

18.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.9 shots/match

8.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match

60.8%Possession10/1050.1%

5 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 12 matches

3.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/121.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/121.92 goals/match

2.83 xG/match▲Expected goals10/121.82 xG/match

18.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1213.8 shots/match

8.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/124.42 shots/match

60.8%Possession10/1248.5%

5 corners/matchCorners10/124 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1210.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches

3.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/60.83 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/61.83 goals/match

3.04 xG/match▲Expected goals5/61.38 xG/match

20.8 shots/match▲Shots5/611.7 shots/match

7.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/64.17 shots/match

65%Possession5/647.3%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/63.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/610.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples10 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 19 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4