Serie A · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeNew Balance ArenaFull-time recap

Atalanta

WWLDD

1–0Full-time recap

Hellas Verona

LLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atalanta	Hellas Verona
Shots	12 shots/match	12 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.02 xG/match	1.11 xG/match▲
Possession	60%	40%
Corners	2 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

weak

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.73 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.73 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	17.1 shots/match	14.8 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Atalanta have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.1%▲PossessionAtalanta · Hellas Verona40.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Atalanta	Hellas Verona	Baseline
Possession	55.1%	40.3%	49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atalanta

0Draws

1Hellas Verona

6 Dec 2025Hellas Verona — Atalanta · Serie A3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 0 · 4 too close

1.37 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/300.73 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/301.73 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

14.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3010.8 shots/match

11.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3013.5 shots/match

4.63 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/303.67 shots/match

3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/304.27 shots/match

55.1%Possessionseason · 30/3040.3%

5.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/303.7 corners/match

4.37 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/304.9 corners/match

1.64 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/282.36 cards/match

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3016 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

37%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3017%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3050%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta72.5

Hellas Verona7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta78.3

Hellas Verona25.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta69.2

Hellas Verona27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta77.5

Hellas Verona82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta13.8

Hellas Verona93.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5

Hellas Verona22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta66.9

Hellas Verona46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match

60.6%Possession5/540.4%

6 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match

9 fouls/matchFouls5/516.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

15.4 shots/match▲Shots10/108.9 shots/match

5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.4 shots/match

53.5%Possession10/1042.2%

5.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match

2.13 cards/matchCards8/82.13 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

1.37 goals/match▲Goals scored30/300.73 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/301.73 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14.8 shots/match▲Shots30/3010.8 shots/match

4.63 shots/match▲Shots on target30/303.67 shots/match

55.1%Possession30/3040.3%

5.7 corners/matchCorners30/303.7 corners/match

1.64 cards/matchCards28/282.36 cards/match

11.2 fouls/matchFouls30/3016 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.63 goals/match

0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.81 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

17.1 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.9 shots/match

5.31 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.38 shots/match

56.1%Possession16/1637.8%

6.81 corners/matchCorners16/163.06 corners/match

1.27 cards/matchCards15/152.6 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1616.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4