Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeEuropa-Park-StadionFull-time recap

SC Freiburg

WLWLD

0–1Full-time recap

Union Berlin

DLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	SC Freiburg	Union Berlin
Shots	19 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.11 xG/match▲	0.54 xG/match
Possession	73%	27%
Corners	6 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	19 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.42 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

moderate

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.7 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

SC Freiburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.5%▲PossessionSC Freiburg · Union Berlin38%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	SC Freiburg	Union Berlin	Baseline
Possession	48.5%	38%	47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0SC Freiburg

1Draws

0Union Berlin

1 Nov 2025Union Berlin — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 3 · 7 too close

1.42 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.19 goals/match

1.65 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/261.62 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/2612.2 shots/match

13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲12.9 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.54 shots/match

4.54 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/264.35 shots/match

48.5%Possessionseason · 26/2638%

4.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.92 corners/match

4.04 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/264.31 corners/match

1.72 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.36 cards/match

9.38 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2613.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲23%

69%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲73%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg52.8

Union Berlin2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg50

Union Berlin28.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg43.5

Union Berlin58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg52.8

Union Berlin97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg25

Union Berlin83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg25

Union Berlin58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg34

Union Berlin50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

46.6%Possession5/534.2%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match

7.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.4 shots/matchShots10/1011.7 shots/match

4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match

43.5%Possession10/1039%

4.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match

1.78 cards/matchCards9/92.22 cards/match

9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches

1.42 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.19 goals/match

1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed26/261.62 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.7 shots/matchShots26/2612.2 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.54 shots/match

48.5%Possession26/2638%

4.54 corners/matchCorners26/264.92 corners/match

1.72 cards/matchCards25/252.36 cards/match

9.38 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches

1.85 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131 goals/match

1.23 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.62 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.7 shots/match▲Shots13/1312.5 shots/match

5.46 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.46 shots/match

53%Possession13/1339.1%

5 corners/matchCorners13/134.92 corners/match

1.92 cards/matchCards12/121.75 cards/match

8.77 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4