Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap

VfB Stuttgart

LWDWD

1–0Full-time recap

RB Leipzig

WDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfB Stuttgart	RB Leipzig
Shots	13 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.02 xG/match	1.12 xG/match▲
Possession	57%	43%
Corners	5 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.96 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.96 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.38 corners/match▲CornersVfB Stuttgart · RB Leipzig5.54 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	VfB Stuttgart	RB Leipzig	Baseline
Corners	5.38 corners/match	5.54 corners/match	4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0VfB Stuttgart

0Draws

1RB Leipzig

1 Nov 2025RB Leipzig — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 3 · 8 too close

1.96 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.85 goals/match

1.31 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/261.35 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

15 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲15.8 shots/match

12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/2612.1 shots/match

5.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/265.69 shots/match

4.35 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲3.96 shots/match

58.5%Possessionseason · 26/2653.7%

5.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/265.54 corners/match

4.19 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/264.54 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.44 cards/match

9.54 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/269.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2635%

92%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2688%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart86.1

RB Leipzig69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart86.1

RB Leipzig80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart71.3

RB Leipzig75.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart41.7

RB Leipzig91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart40.3

RB Leipzig13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart75

RB Leipzig86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart70.8

RB Leipzig72.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.6 shots/matchShots5/514.4 shots/match

6.2 shots/matchShots on target5/56 shots/match

61%Possession5/557.2%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match

7.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.8 shots/matchShots10/1014.6 shots/match

6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.5 shots/match

61.3%Possession10/1058%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards9/91.33 cards/match

8.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches

1.96 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.85 goals/match

1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed26/261.35 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

15 shots/matchShots26/26▲15.8 shots/match

5.88 shots/matchShots on target26/265.69 shots/match

58.5%Possession26/2653.7%

5.38 corners/matchCorners26/265.54 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards25/251.44 cards/match

9.54 fouls/matchFouls26/269.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.46 goals/match

0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.31 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

16 shots/match▲Shots13/1314.5 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.54 shots/match

56.8%Possession13/1352.7%

5.08 corners/matchCorners13/135.31 corners/match

2.17 cards/matchCards12/121.75 cards/match

9 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4