Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeWeserstadionFull-time recap

Werder Bremen

LLLWW

0–2Full-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

WLDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Werder Bremen	FSV Mainz 05
Shots	16 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.87 xG/match	1.08 xG/match▲
Possession	66%	34%
Corners	9 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.12 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.31 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.31 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Werder Bremen have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.5%▲PossessionWerder Bremen · FSV Mainz 0543.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Werder Bremen	FSV Mainz 05	Baseline
Possession	52.5%	43.6%	47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Werder Bremen

1Draws

0FSV Mainz 05

1 Nov 2025FSV Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Werder Bremen favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 3 · 7 too close

1.12 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲1.19 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲1.58 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2611.5 shots/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2614.7 shots/match

4.15 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.65 shots/match

5.12 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/265.12 shots/match

52.5%Possessionseason · 26/2643.6%

4.62 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/265.04 corners/match

4.65 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/264.5 corners/match

2.64 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/252.52 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2611.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2612%

58%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲65%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Werder Bremen58.3

FSV Mainz 0513.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Werder Bremen39.8

FSV Mainz 0525

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Werder Bremen31.5

FSV Mainz 0533.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Werder Bremen47.2

FSV Mainz 0558.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen66.7

FSV Mainz 0572.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen36.1

FSV Mainz 0566.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Werder Bremen45.1

FSV Mainz 0542.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

15 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54 shots/match

56.6%Possession5/539.2%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match

3.25 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

16.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.7 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match

58.7%Possession10/1040.4%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match

2.22 cards/matchCards9/92.44 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches

1.12 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲1.19 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲1.58 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13.6 shots/match▲Shots26/2611.5 shots/match

4.15 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.65 shots/match

52.5%Possession26/2643.6%

4.62 corners/matchCorners26/265.04 corners/match

2.64 cards/matchCards25/252.52 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches

1.08 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.23 goals/match

1.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.92 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

15.8 shots/match▲Shots13/139.31 shots/match

4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.38 shots/match

53%Possession13/1339.5%

4.77 corners/matchCorners13/133.69 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCards12/123 cards/match

9.92 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4