PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Weserstadion

SV Werder Bremen 0–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 0–2.

Shots
1611
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.881.08
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

FSV Mainz 05 beat Werder Bremen 2–0. Recorded in this match (Werder Bremen – FSV Mainz 05): shots 16–11, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.88–1.08, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.12 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.31 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.31 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Werder Bremen have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.5% ●PossessionWerder Bremen · FSV Mainz 0543.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricWerder BremenFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession52.5%43.6%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots11 shotsSV Werder Bremen 16 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsSV Werder Bremen 3 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.88 xG1.08 xGSV Werder Bremen 0.88 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.08 xG
  • Possession66%34%SV Werder Bremen 66%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 34%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersSV Werder Bremen 9 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls7 foulsSV Werder Bremen 7 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardSV Werder Bremen 2 cards, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Cameron Puertas · Werder Bremen · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · FSV Mainz 05 · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarco Grüll · Werder Bremen · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStefan Posch · FSV Mainz 05 · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · FSV Mainz 05 · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJustin Njinmah · Werder Bremen · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJustin Njinmah · Werder Bremen · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSalim Musah · Werder Bremen · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Bittencourt · Werder Bremen · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · FSV Mainz 05 · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKeke Topp · Werder Bremen · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJens Stage · Werder Bremen · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Deman · Werder Bremen · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · Werder Bremen · 22′ · 0.06 xG · on targetStefan Posch · FSV Mainz 05 · 2′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Deman · Werder Bremen · 61′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKeke Topp · Werder Bremen · 4′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMarco Grüll · Werder Bremen · 48′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJens Stage · Werder Bremen · 71′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPatrice Čović · Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 6′ · 0.21 xG · goalJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 52′ · 0.22 xG · goalPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 16′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Werder Bremen: 16 shots, 3 on target, 0.89 xG. FSV Mainz 05: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Paul Nebel · FSV Mainz 05 · 6′Jae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Werder Bremen 0.89 xG · FSV Mainz 05 1.08 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4SV Werder Bremen
1Draws
01. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga1–1
SV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga1–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga0–1
SV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SV Werder Bremen favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SV Werder Bremen26 matches1. FSV Mainz 0526 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.19 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.58 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.46 xG/match
13.7 shots/match ▲Shots26/2611.5 shots/match
4.15 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/263.65 shots/match
52.5% ●Possession26/2643.6%
4.62 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.04 corners/match
2.64 cards/matchCards25/252.52 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSV Werder Bremen1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headSV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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