Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap

1. FC Heidenheim

LDLLL

3–3Full-time recap

Bayer Leverkusen

LDWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	Bayer Leverkusen
Shots	9 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.57 xG/match	1.62 xG/match▲
Possession	38%	62%
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

42%▲Possession1. FC Heidenheim · Bayer Leverkusen59.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	Bayer Leverkusen	Baseline
Possession	42%	59.4%	47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Bayer Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · Bayer Leverkusen14.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	Bayer Leverkusen	Baseline
Shots	11.3 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	12.7 shots/match
Shots against	15.2 shots/match	11.9 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01. FC Heidenheim

0Draws

1Bayer Leverkusen

8 Nov 2025Bayer Leverkusen — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga6–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 9 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.93 goals/match

2.26 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.33 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲14.1 shots/match

15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲11.9 shots/match

3.37 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.63 shots/match

5.7 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲4.78 shots/match

42%Possessionseason · 27/2759.4%

4.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/275.04 corners/match

4.89 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.22 corners/match

1.54 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.31 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/279.07 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲26%

59%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3

Bayer Leverkusen91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim6.5

Bayer Leverkusen73.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim4.6

Bayer Leverkusen63

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim69.4

Bayer Leverkusen13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim30.6

Bayer Leverkusen38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim30.6

Bayer Leverkusen63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim22.2

Bayer Leverkusen55.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.4 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match

40.6%Possession5/557.8%

3 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

0.75 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match

2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match

39.3%Possession10/1059.1%

4.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

1.22 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match

9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.93 goals/match

2.26 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲1.33 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.3 shots/matchShots27/27▲14.1 shots/match

3.37 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.63 shots/match

42%Possession27/2759.4%

4.56 corners/matchCorners27/275.04 corners/match

1.54 cards/matchCards26/262.31 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls27/279.07 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

1.29 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.86 goals/match

2.43 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.71 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.6 shots/matchShots14/14▲12.4 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on target14/143.79 shots/match

40.5%Possession14/1458.2%

4.57 corners/matchCorners14/144.29 corners/match

1.15 cards/matchCards13/132.38 cards/match

9.79 fouls/matchFouls14/149.07 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4