UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 17 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWWWD

2–0Full-time recap

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

LWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Shots	21 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	12 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.75 xG/match▲	0.52 xG/match
Possession	42%	58%
Corners	10 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	4 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 21 shots, 12 on target, 1.73 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.73 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.52 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer 04 Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Bayer 04 Leverkusen11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	Baseline
Shots	16.1 shots/match	11 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	10.8 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	18.6 shots/match	16.1 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Arsenal

2Draws

0Bayer 04 Leverkusen

11 Mar 2026Bayer Leverkusen — Arsenal · UEFA Champions League1–1

11 Mar 2026Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Arsenal · UEFA Champions League1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 0 · 3 too close

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/121.33 goals/match

0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/121.42 goals/match

2.35 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/121.37 xG/match

0.76 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/121.36 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1211 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1212.8 shots/match

7.7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/123.92 shots/match

2.7 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/124.5 shots/match

53.4%Possessionseason · 10/1252.3%

5.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/124.67 corners/match

3.1 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/124.75 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/128.58 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

60%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1242%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1275%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal70.2

Bayer 04 Leverkusen67.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal87.7

Bayer 04 Leverkusen31.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal91.8

Bayer 04 Leverkusen56.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal72.6

Bayer 04 Leverkusen15.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal52.4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal70.2

Bayer 04 Leverkusen50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal72.9

Bayer 04 Leverkusen28.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

2.51 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.21 xG/match

17.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match

8.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

52.6%Possession5/554.6%

7.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/57.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match

0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

2.35 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.34 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match

7.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match

53.4%Possession10/1051.7%

5.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/108.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 12 matches

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/121.33 goals/match

0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/121.42 goals/match

2.35 xG/match▲Expected goals10/121.37 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1211 shots/match

7.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/123.92 shots/match

53.4%Possession10/1252.3%

5.7 corners/matchCorners10/124.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/128.58 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches

2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/61.17 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/61 goals/match

2.73 xG/match▲Expected goals5/61.22 xG/match

18.6 shots/match▲Shots5/610.5 shots/match

8.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/63.67 shots/match

52%Possession5/657.3%

6.6 corners/matchCorners5/64.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/69.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.09 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples10 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4