PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Stamford Bridge

Chelsea 0–3 Paris Saint-Germain · UEFA Champions League

Chelsea

WLWWL
0–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 0–3.

Shots
188
Shots on target
95
Expected goals
1.031.09
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint Germain beat Chelsea 3–0. Recorded in this match (Chelsea – Paris Saint Germain): shots 18–8, shots on target 9–5, expected goals 1.03–1.09, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.1 corners/matchCornersChelsea · Paris Saint Germain● 6.25 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricChelseaParis Saint GermainBaseline
Corners6.1 corners/match6.25 corners/match4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.9 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chelsea have a visible home split

moderate

Chelsea's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots8 shotsChelsea 18 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 8 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots5 shotsChelsea 9 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.03 xG1.09 xGChelsea 1.03 xG, Paris Saint-Germain 1.09 xG
  • Possession46%54%Chelsea 46%, Paris Saint-Germain 54%
  • Corners9 corners3 cornersChelsea 9 corners, Paris Saint-Germain 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls10 foulsChelsea 8 fouls, Paris Saint-Germain 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Trevoh Chalobah · Chelsea · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Garnacho · Chelsea · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoão Pedro · Chelsea · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Chelsea · 67′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJorrel Hato · Chelsea · 43′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlejandro Garnacho · Chelsea · 65′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlejandro Garnacho · Chelsea · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Chelsea · 78′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Chelsea · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 42′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJoão Pedro · Chelsea · 36′ · 0.09 xG · on targetSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 62′ · 0.09 xG · goalAlejandro Garnacho · Chelsea · 75′ · 0.09 xG · on targetPedro Neto · Chelsea · 13′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 33′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Chelsea · 61′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJoão Pedro · Chelsea · 23′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.14 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 14′ · 0.15 xG · goalKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 6′ · 0.22 xG · goalBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 43′ · 0.28 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 18 shots, 9 on target, 1.05 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 6′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 14′Senny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.05 xG · Paris Saint Germain 1.07 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Chelsea
0Draws
1Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain — Chelsea · UEFA Champions League5–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chelsea favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chelsea10 matchesParis Saint-Germain12 matches
1.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/12▲ 2.83 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/12▲ 1.42 goals/match
1.61 xG/matchExpected goals10/12▲ 2.02 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots10/12▲ 20 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target10/12▲ 7.5 shots/match
54.7%Possession10/12● 67.3%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/12● 6.25 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/128.42 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 18 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChelseaParis Saint-Germain
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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