Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

LDLLW

0–4Full-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

WLWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nice	Paris Saint Germain
Shots	6 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.24 xG/match	3.63 xG/match▲
Possession	26%	74%
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	5 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nice: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.23 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 17 shots, 10 on target, 3.72 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 0.23 xG · Paris Saint Germain 3.72 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsNice · Paris Saint Germain17.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nice	Paris Saint Germain	Baseline
Shots	11.3 shots/match	17.8 shots/match	11.4 shots/match
Shots against	14.9 shots/match	8.5 shots/match	12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.2%▲PossessionNice · Paris Saint Germain68.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nice	Paris Saint Germain	Baseline
Possession	47.2%	68.8%	49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.19 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nice

0Draws

1Paris Saint Germain

1 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain — Nice · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 10 · 4 too close

1.19 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/26▲2.23 goals/match

1.93 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/26▲0.85 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/1—

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/26▲17.8 shots/match

14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/26▲8.5 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/26▲6.92 shots/match

5.3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/26▲2.85 shots/match

47.2%Possessionseason · 27/2668.8%

5.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/266 corners/match

5.7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/26▲2.92 corners/match

2.27 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/269.92 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/26▲54%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/26▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice41.7

Paris Saint Germain97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice40.7

Paris Saint Germain97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice8.3

Paris Saint Germain97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice47.2

Paris Saint Germain80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice52.8

Paris Saint Germain5.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice69.4

Paris Saint Germain91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice49.3

Paris Saint Germain73.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals2/1—

9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲19.2 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.6 shots/match

43.8%Possession5/569.6%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards4/50.4 cards/match

11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/1—

10.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲18 shots/match

3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7 shots/match

46.7%Possession10/1067.4%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards9/100.7 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/109.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 26 matches

1.19 goals/matchGoals scored27/26▲2.23 goals/match

1.93 goals/matchGoals allowed27/26▲0.85 goals/match

—Expected goals2/1—

11.3 shots/matchShots27/26▲17.8 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target27/26▲6.92 shots/match

47.2%Possession27/2668.8%

5.04 corners/matchCorners27/266 corners/match

2.27 cards/matchCards26/261 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls27/269.92 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

1.21 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.93 goals/match

1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.07 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.4 shots/matchShots14/14▲15.9 shots/match

4.43 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲6.64 shots/match

45.4%Possession14/1468.9%

5.14 corners/matchCorners14/145.64 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards14/140.93 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/149.43 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Nice's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match