PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stadium de Toulouse

Toulouse 1–0 Lorient · Ligue 1

1–0Historical match

Lorient

WDDDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 1–0.

Shots
127
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.150.4
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat Lorient 1–0. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Lorient): shots 12–7, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.15–0.4, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.37 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.37 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots7 shotsToulouse 12 shots, Lorient 7 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsToulouse 4 shots, Lorient 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.15 xG0.4 xGToulouse 1.15 xG, Lorient 0.4 xG
  • Possession42%58%Toulouse 42%, Lorient 58%
  • Corners1 corner4 cornersToulouse 1 corner, Lorient 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls10 foulsToulouse 9 fouls, Lorient 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsToulouse 2 cards, Lorient 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedArthur Avom Ebong · Lorient · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDarlin Yongwa · Lorient · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArsène Kouassi · Lorient · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoah Cadiou · Lorient · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDarlin Yongwa · Lorient · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSambou Soumano · Lorient · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 81′ · 0.07 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 11′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 1′ · 0.17 xG · on targetAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 62′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedMario Sauer · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.56 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.23 xG. Lorient: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Emersonn · Toulouse · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.23 xG · Lorient 0.40 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Toulouse
3Draws
0Lorient
Lorient — Toulouse · Ligue 11–1
Lorient — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — Lorient · Ligue 11–1
Lorient — Toulouse · Ligue 10–1
Toulouse — Lorient · Ligue 12–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Lorient in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse27 matchesLorient27 matches
1.41 goals/matchGoals scored27/271.37 goals/match
1.19 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.52 goals/match
1.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.28 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots27/2711.4 shots/match
4.52 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/273.81 shots/match
43.3%Possession27/27● 45.4%
4.67 corners/match ●Corners27/273.22 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards25/251.76 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls27/279.74 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseLorient
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headToulouse — Lorient
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required