Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap

Toulouse

LDLLW

1–0Full-time recap

Lorient

WDDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Toulouse	Lorient
Shots	12 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.15 xG/match▲	0.4 xG/match
Possession	42%	58%
Corners	1 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Toulouse: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.23 xG. Lorient: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.23 xG · Lorient 0.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.37 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.37 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Toulouse

1Draws

0Lorient

9 Nov 2025Lorient — Toulouse · Ligue 11–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 2 · 6 too close

1.41 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/271.37 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.52 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2711.4 shots/match

10.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/2710.9 shots/match

4.48 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/273.81 shots/match

3.41 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/273.89 shots/match

43.4%Possessionseason · 27/2745.4%

4.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/273.22 corners/match

4.81 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275.11 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.76 cards/match

14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/279.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2719%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲70%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse19.4

Lorient30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse63.9

Lorient45.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse83.4

Lorient57.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse91.7

Lorient69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse88.9

Lorient8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse47.2

Lorient8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse70.8

Lorient25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

15 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match

46.2%Possession5/549%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

15.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010 shots/match

5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match

48.5%Possession10/1048.8%

5 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match

2.13 cards/matchCards8/81.13 cards/match

13.4 fouls/matchFouls10/108.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

1.41 goals/matchGoals scored27/271.37 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.52 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shots27/2711.4 shots/match

4.48 shots/match▲Shots on target27/273.81 shots/match

43.4%Possession27/2745.4%

4.67 corners/matchCorners27/273.22 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCards25/251.76 cards/match

14.1 fouls/matchFouls27/279.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.79 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.57 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.8 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.07 shots/match

43.4%Possession14/1445.6%

5.07 corners/matchCorners14/143.71 corners/match

1.54 cards/matchCards13/131.62 cards/match

13.3 fouls/matchFouls14/149.43 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4