Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade du MoustoirFull-time recap

Lorient

LWDDD

2–1Full-time recap

Lens

WWLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lorient	Lens
Shots	6 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.45 xG/match▲	1.35 xG/match
Possession	34%	66%
Corners	1 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lorient: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.88 xG. Lens: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lorient 1.88 xG · Lens 1.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.42 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lorient

0Draws

1Lens

2 Nov 2025Lens — Lorient · Ligue 13–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lorient favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 8 · 5 too close

1.42 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲1.88 goals/match

1.54 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲0.88 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲15.1 shots/match

10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/2611.1 shots/match

3.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲5.23 shots/match

3.88 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲3.42 shots/match

44.9%Possessionseason · 26/2649.8%

3.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/265.77 corners/match

5.27 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲3.88 corners/match

1.76 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.12 cards/match

9.69 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2613.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲38%

73%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient30.6

Lens52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient49.1

Lens88

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient56.5

Lens82.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient75

Lens97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient8.3

Lens58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient8.3

Lens86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient26.4

Lens83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11 shots/matchShots5/5▲20.8 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match

49.2%Possession5/551.4%

3 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match

1.25 cards/matchCards4/41.25 cards/match

8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

10.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲17 shots/match

3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match

47.3%Possession10/1052.4%

3.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match

1.11 cards/matchCards9/92.11 cards/match

8.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches

1.42 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲1.88 goals/match

1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲0.88 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.5 shots/matchShots26/26▲15.1 shots/match

3.88 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲5.23 shots/match

44.9%Possession26/2649.8%

3.19 corners/matchCorners26/265.77 corners/match

1.76 cards/matchCards25/252.12 cards/match

9.69 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.77 goals/match

1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.15 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12 shots/matchShots13/13▲14.5 shots/match

4.62 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4.92 shots/match

45.2%Possession13/1349.5%

2.69 corners/matchCorners13/135.38 corners/match

1.92 cards/matchCards12/122.42 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.08 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4