PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

WWWLD
3–0Full-time recap

Metz

LDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensMetz
Shots24 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Saud Abdulhamid · Lens · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlpha Touré · Metz · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · Lens · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFodé Ballo-Touré · Metz · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 59′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMamadou Sangare · Lens · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBouna Sarr · Metz · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 81′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 46′ · 0.10 xG · goalAmadou Haidara · Lens · 52′ · 0.10 xG · goalFlorian Sotoca · Lens · 63′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 25′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 18′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 32′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 70′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSaud Abdulhamid · Lens · 44′ · 0.16 xG · goalRayan Fofana · Lens · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 25′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAlpha Touré · Metz · 84′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 37′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 15′ · 0.27 xG · on targetAbdallah Sima · Lens · 18′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 43′ · 0.30 xG · on targetMatthieu Udol · Lens · 15′ · 0.36 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 24 shots, 7 on target, 3.28 xG. Metz: 5 shots, 0 on target, 0.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Saud Abdulhamid · Lens · 44′Florian Thauvin · Lens · 46′Amadou Haidara · Lens · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 3.28 xG · Metz 0.38 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsLens · Metz9.24 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLensMetzBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match9.24 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match14.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metz have a visible away split

moderate

Metz's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.77 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season9.24 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.77 shots/match9.24 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lens
0Draws
1Metz
Metz — Lens · Ligue 12–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 1 · 4 too close

1.92 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/250.88 goals/match
0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/252.24 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/259.24 shots/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2514.9 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/252.92 shots/match
3.44 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/255.76 shots/match
49.1%Possessionseason · 25/2549%
5.64 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.08 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.92 corners/match
2.12 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.84 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2516%
84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2556%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens52.8
Metz47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens88
Metz9.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens84.2
Metz4.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens97.2
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens63.9
Metz25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens86.1
Metz30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens86.1
Metz18.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/550.2%
6 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots10/109.7 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match
50.4%Possession10/1048.7%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.92 goals/match▲Goals scored25/250.88 goals/match
0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/252.24 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots25/259.24 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target25/252.92 shots/match
49.1%Possession25/2549%
5.64 corners/matchCorners25/254.08 corners/match
2.12 cards/matchCards25/251.84 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.92 goals/match
0.62 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.85 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots13/137.77 shots/match
5.54 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.31 shots/match
50.1%Possession13/1348.5%
6.15 corners/matchCorners13/133.54 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards13/132.15 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1311 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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